Connecting the dots

The report finds that while more countries mention fossil fuel production in their climate plans over time, most references relate to continued or increased production rather than a managed phase-out. Only a small number of countries have set specific targets or policies to wind down production, and many lack detailed plans for economic diversification or just transitions for workers.

• There is a trend of increasing mentions of fossil fuel production in national climate plans, but these references predominantly signal a continuation or expansion of production. In second-round NDCs, 67% of fossil-fuel-producing countries mention production, and nearly 75% mention it in their LT-LEDS, yet many of the world's largest producers—including Canada, China, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US—signal continued or increased production.
• Very few countries use NDCs and LT-LEDS to communicate specific targets or policies for phasing down fossil fuel production. Only two countries (India and Nigeria) mentioned such targets in first-round NDCs, and five (Costa Rica, North Macedonia, Pakistan, and the EU) did so in second-round NDCs. In LT-LEDS, 12 countries and the EU mention restricting or phasing down production, with France committing to a phase-out by 2040 and Denmark by 2050.
• Countries often justify the continuation of fossil fuel extraction through arguments regarding national energy security, economic reliance, or the role of natural gas as a transition fuel. Some countries, such as Argentina, Australia, Qatar, and Tanzania, explicitly frame the increase of natural gas production as a contribution to global climate mitigation.
• Transition planning, including economic diversification and just transition measures, is more common in LT-LEDS than in NDCs, suggesting a longer-term perspective. Nearly half of fossil-fuel-producing countries mention transition planning in LT-LEDS, though many statements remain broad and aspirational. For example, the US LT-LEDS targets just transition measures for coal mining communities, and Australia plans to build hydrogen and renewable industries to offset falling coal and gas demand.
• A growing number of countries are reporting on the social equity and international support dimensions of a fossil fuel wind-down. 25% of second-round NDCs include information on economic dependence on fossil fuels (e.g., Ecuador, Norway, Senegal, South Sudan, and Suriname). Additionally, countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kenya have linked their emissions targets or development objectives to the receipt of international finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building for a fair transition.

APA

Jones, N., Verkuijl, C., Cabré, M. M., & Piggot, G. (2023). Connecting the dots. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/fossil-fuel-production-2023-global-stocktake.pdf

Chicago

Jones, Natalie, Cleo Verkuijl, Miquel Muñoz Cabré, and Georgia Piggot. Connecting the dots. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2023. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/fossil-fuel-production-2023-global-stocktake.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jones |first1=Natalie |last2=Verkuijl |first2=Cleo |last3=Cabré |first3=Miquel Muñoz |last4=Piggot |first4=Georgia |title=Connecting the dots |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2023 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/fossil-fuel-production-2023-global-stocktake.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jones2023connecting, author = {Jones, Natalie and Verkuijl, Cleo and Cabré, Miquel Muñoz and Piggot, Georgia}, title = {{Connecting the dots}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/fossil-fuel-production-2023-global-stocktake.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }