NATIONAL FAIR SHARES THE MITIGATION GAP - DOMESTIC ACTION AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT

The report utilizes the Climate Equity Reference Calculator to determine national 'fair shares' of global mitigation efforts based on the UNFCCC principles of responsibility and capacity. It argues that for wealthy, high-emitting countries, fair shares often exceed domestic mitigation potential, necessitating the provision of international support. Conversely, for poorer countries, domestic potential exceeds their fair share, requiring international support to unlock further reductions. The analysis uses three ambition pathways (Strong 2°C, Weak 2°C, and G8) and an 'equity band' (Low, Medium, and High settings) to assess national contributions, concluding that current pledges, such as the EU's 40% target, are generally inconsistent with 2°C goals unless supplemented by significant international support.

• The report identifies a systemic gap where countries with high capacity and responsibility have fair shares that exceed their domestic mitigation potential, while countries with low capacity and responsibility have domestic potentials that exceed their fair shares.
• Under the 'Strong 2°C pathway' and 'Middle Equity Settings', the United States' total mitigation fair share for 2025 is 10,400 MtCO2e, consisting of 4,000 MtCO2e in domestic mitigation and 6,400 MtCO2e in internationally-supported mitigation.
• For China, the mitigation fair share is significantly lower than its total domestic mitigation potential, indicating a requirement for international support to reach its full potential.
• The European Union's projected INDC of a 40% reduction relative to 1990 emissions is found to be inconsistent with any plausible 2°C level of ambition unless it is paired with substantial international mitigation support.
• India's fair share varies drastically across the equity band; under 'High Equity Settings', its 2025 fair share is only 21 MtCO2e, whereas under 'Low Equity Settings', it rises to 1,600 MtCO2e.
• Global analysis shows that the majority of actual emission reductions must occur in support-recipient (developing) countries because that is where emissions are currently highest and growing fastest.
• The report defines three global mitigation pathways with varying risks: the 'Strong 2°C pathway' has a considerably greater than 67% chance of keeping warming below 2°C, the 'Weak 2°C pathway' has a 33% to 50% probability, and the 'G8 pathway' has a considerably less than 33% chance.
• The 'Low Equity Settings' are characterized as difficult to justify because they assume zero progressivity, meaning the income of the world's poorest counts equally toward national capacity as that of the richest.

APA

Athanasiou, T., Kartha, S., & Baer, P. (2014). NATIONAL FAIR SHARES THE MITIGATION GAP - DOMESTIC ACTION AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/EcoEquity-SEI-2014-National-fair-shares.pdf

Chicago

Athanasiou, Tom, Sivan Kartha, and Paul Baer. NATIONAL FAIR SHARES THE MITIGATION GAP - DOMESTIC ACTION AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2014. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/EcoEquity-SEI-2014-National-fair-shares.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Athanasiou |first1=Tom |last2=Kartha |first2=Sivan |last3=Baer |first3=Paul |title=NATIONAL FAIR SHARES THE MITIGATION GAP - DOMESTIC ACTION AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=12 November 2014 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/EcoEquity-SEI-2014-National-fair-shares.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{athanasiou2014national, author = {Athanasiou, Tom and Kartha, Sivan and Baer, Paul}, title = {{NATIONAL FAIR SHARES THE MITIGATION GAP - DOMESTIC ACTION AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2014}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/EcoEquity-SEI-2014-National-fair-shares.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }