China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 3: The Finale

The paper examines the shift toward a more collaborative US-China relationship on climate change ahead of COP15 in Copenhagen. It details the announcement of mid-term emissions targets by both nations, China's continued alignment with the G77, and the internal US political struggles to pass climate legislation. The authors argue that while bilateral cooperation on clean energy technology is increasing, deep distrust between developed and developing nations and US domestic partisan gridlock continue to threaten the prospects of a legally binding international agreement.

• The US and China announced mid-term emissions targets in November 2009, which reduced a major negotiating roadblock for Copenhagen, although the targets remain below what is required to meet the 2C temperature goal. The US pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 17% by 2020, 30% by 2025, 42% by 2030, and 83% by 2050 relative to a 2005 benchmark. China announced an intention to reduce carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 40-45% in 2020 compared with 2005 levels.
• China's carbon intensity target is viewed as being within 'BAU' (Business As Usual) scenarios and is less ambitious than its own domestic goals. China maintains that these targets are voluntary and not subject to international verification, which conflicts with US demands for a transparent measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) system.
• China remains firmly aligned with the G77 and the BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China), resisting any moves that would expand the legal obligations of developing countries, such as legally binding emissions cuts or peaking years, without greater commitment from developed nations.
• US domestic climate legislation is stalled in the Senate due to partisan divisions and concerns from 'fence-sitter' Democrats in coal-dependent states. While the Obama administration may use the EPA's planned regulation of greenhouse gases as a 'trump card' because it does not require Congressional approval, such rules are expected to face court challenges.
• The US and China have shifted toward a more collaborative relationship, evidenced by a series of cooperation agreements on electric vehicles, energy efficiency, renewable energy, clean coal (including carbon capture and storage), and shale gas. This collaboration may incrementally weaken US domestic opposition to climate policy by creating economic opportunities for American companies in China.
• The outlook for a legal treaty at Copenhagen was considered grim due to distrust between developed and developing nations and a clash between the EU's 'top-down' approach and the G77's preference for a 'bottom-up' strategy. Danish Prime Minister Lars L
  kke Rasmussen attempted to ease this by proposing a 'one agreement, two purposes' vision to provide for both immediate operational action and continued negotiations on a legal agreement.

APA

Carson, M., Thai, H., Hallding, K., Han, G., & Wang, L. (2009). China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 3: The Finale. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/china3 - final wp 100329.pdf

Chicago

Carson, Marcus, Helen Thai, Karl Hallding, Guoyi Han, and Lan Wang. China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 3: The Finale. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2009. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/china3 - final wp 100329.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Carson |first1=Marcus |last2=Thai |first2=Helen |last3=Hallding |first3=Karl |last4=Han |first4=Guoyi |last5=Wang |first5=Lan |title=China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 3: The Finale |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2009 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/china3 - final wp 100329.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carson2009china, author = {Carson, Marcus and Thai, Helen and Hallding, Karl and Han, Guoyi and Wang, Lan}, title = {{China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 3: The Finale}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2009}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/china3 - final wp 100329.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }