China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 2: Convergence and Contingencies

The document analyzes the interdependence of U.S. Senate climate legislation and U.S.-China diplomatic relations ahead of the 2009 Copenhagen summit. It argues that the Obama administration's ability to secure a global deal depends on passing domestic legislation to provide negotiating clarity and using bilateral cooperation on technology to unlock Chinese emissions targets. The brief highlights a 'Catch 22' where the U.S. needs Chinese commitments to sway domestic swing voters, while China requires U.S. targets and finance/technology commitments before revealing its own midterm goals.

• The passage of climate legislation in the U.S. Senate is viewed as a critical prerequisite for the Obama administration to demonstrate leadership on finance, technology transfer, and mid-term targets, which is necessary to reduce Chinese reticence in negotiations.
• U.S. domestic climate policy is currently constrained by other legislative priorities, specifically health care reform, which must be passed to free up the Senate agenda and provide the administration with political momentum.
• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing to regulate CO2 as a pollutant under the Clean Air Act, with a draft rule potentially covering nearly 70 percent of GHG emission sources by early 2010, serving as a regulatory fallback if Congressional legislation fails.
• China is reluctant to disclose its midterm emissions targets until the U.S. makes firm commitments, fearing that taking a leadership position prematurely would increase its risks.
• Analysis suggests China's potential midterm carbon intensity target may range from 22 to 28% per five-year period to 2020; a target of 25% would align with a 20% energy intensity target and a 20% renewable energy target by 2020.
• China maintains a strong diplomatic alliance with the G77, making it unlikely that China will deviate from this bloc to pursue a separate negotiation track before COP 15.
• Bilateral cooperation on technology transfer is identified as the primary tool for the U.S. to improve relations with China and address domestic American concerns regarding trade competitiveness in the clean energy market.

APA

Hallding, K., Carson, M., Thai, H., & Han, G. (2009). China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 2: Convergence and Contingencies. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/china2 - convergence wp 100329.pdf

Chicago

Hallding, Karl, Marcus Carson, Helen Thai, and Guoyi Han. China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 2: Convergence and Contingencies. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2009. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/china2 - convergence wp 100329.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hallding |first1=Karl |last2=Carson |first2=Marcus |last3=Thai |first3=Helen |last4=Han |first4=Guoyi |title=China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 2: Convergence and Contingencies |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2009 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/china2 - convergence wp 100329.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hallding2009china, author = {Hallding, Karl and Carson, Marcus and Thai, Helen and Han, Guoyi}, title = {{China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 2: Convergence and Contingencies}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2009}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/china2 - convergence wp 100329.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }