Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability

The report argues that current global development trends are environmentally and socially unsustainable, risking ecological collapse and persistent poverty. It proposes a 'Policy Reform' pathway that maintains the framework of economic globalization but introduces aggressive policy interventions to meet sustainability goals. These goals include halving hunger, unsafe water, and illiteracy by 2025 and again by 2050, while stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations at less than 450 ppmv by 2100. The analysis demonstrates that such a transition is technically feasible through massive improvements in energy and water efficiency, a shift toward renewable energy, and the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, provided there is sufficient political will to implement these reforms.

• The 'Reference' scenario, based on current trends, is environmentally unsustainable and fails to meet social goals, with world population increasing by over 50% and carbon dioxide emissions soaring by 2050.
• Under business-as-usual conditions, absolute poverty and hunger persist into the mid-21st century, with the number of undernourished people projected to rise from 900 million in 1995 to 950 million by 2050.
• The report proposes social sustainability targets to halve the incidence of hunger, unsafe water, and illiteracy by 2025 and then by half again by 2050, based on 1995 figures.
• To stabilize the climate and allow ecosystems to adapt, the report targets a warming rate of no more than 0.1C per decade between 1990 and 2100, requiring atmospheric CO2 concentrations to stabilize at less than 450 ppmv by 2100.
• The Policy Reform scenario requires OECD regions to reduce annual carbon emissions by 10% by 2010 and 35% by 2025 relative to 1990 levels, with all regions converging to a common per capita emission rate of 0.6 tC by 2075.
• Achieving sustainability requires a massive shift in energy intensity; the Policy Reform scenario targets a 70% decrease in energy required per unit of economic activity in OECD regions by 2050.
• A sustainable energy transition involves fuel switching, where the combined share of coal and oil decreases from 62% in 1995 to 37% in 2050, while natural gas and renewables increase their shares.
• To protect ecosystems, the report targets a total halt to deforestation by 2025, followed by net reforestation by 2050.
• Freshwater sustainability is a critical challenge; the report suggests that in water-stressed countries, withdrawals should peak by 2025 to avoid severe scarcity.
• The report argues that the transition to sustainability is an institutional and political challenge rather than a technological one, as the necessary technical means for clean energy and food production already exist.

APA

Raskin, P., Gallopin, G., Gutman, P., Hammond, A., & Swart, R. (1998). Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Future/bending_the_curve.pdf

Chicago

Raskin, Paul, Gilberto Gallopin, Pablo Gutman, Al Hammond, and Rob Swart. Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability. Stockholm Environment Institute, 1998. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Future/bending_the_curve.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Raskin |first1=Paul |last2=Gallopin |first2=Gilberto |last3=Gutman |first3=Pablo |last4=Hammond |first4=Al |last5=Swart |first5=Rob |title=Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=1998 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Future/bending_the_curve.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{raskin1998bending, author = {Raskin, Paul and Gallopin, Gilberto and Gutman, Pablo and Hammond, Al and Swart, Rob}, title = {{Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {1998}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Future/bending_the_curve.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }