NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060

Nigeria's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) establishes a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2060. The strategy analyzes four decarbonization scenarios—Business As Usual (BAU), Current Policy Scenario (CPS), Gas Economy Scenario (GES), and Renewable Energy Scenario (RES)—concluding that the RES, supported by international aid (RES+), offers the most promising balance of low emissions and economic growth. The report details sectoral mitigation measures for power, AFOLU, industry, transport, and waste, alongside a comprehensive adaptation framework to protect the economy, particularly the agriculture sector, from climate-induced GDP losses. Implementation relies on policy, financial, and technological innovations, including carbon pricing and the establishment of a National Climate Change Fund.

• Nigeria has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, updating its previous 2050 vision to ensure a climate-resilient, high-growth circular economy in a gender-responsive manner.
• The Renewable Energy Scenario (RES) is the only pathway that meets the goal of cutting emissions by 50% by 2050, projecting a 96.8% reduction in emissions by 2060 compared to 2018 levels.
• The RES+ scenario, which assumes international financial aid to fund the shift from the Current Policy Scenario to the RES trajectory, is identified as the most promising, with a projected real GDP growth rate of 5.52% and an unemployment rate of 6.00% by 2060.
• The cumulative international financial aid required to achieve the RES+ scenario over 38 years is estimated at 859 billion 2021 USD.
• The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is the second highest producer of emissions; the strategy aims to increase national forest cover to a minimum of 25% by 2060 through planting at least 25 million trees annually.
• Power sector decarbonization targets include increasing the renewable energy mix to at least 60% by 2060, with specific goals for Solar PV utility (45,000 MW), Wind (25,000 MW), and Nuclear (20,000 MW).
• The strategy for the oil and gas sector focuses on eliminating gas flaring by 2030 and reducing methane leakage to 85% by 2050 and 98% by 2060.
• Transport sector mitigation involves a shift toward electric and ethanol vehicles, targeting 55% and 45% of light-duty vehicles respectively by 2060, and shifting 50% of road passenger car transport to BRT buses.
• Climate change is projected to cause a 4.92% decline in Nigeria's GDP by 2050 compared to a business-as-usual scenario, with the agriculture sector contributing 64% of this decline.
• To recover from climate-induced GDP loss, Nigeria needs to expand climate-smart agricultural practices to an additional 58% of cultivated area, improved crop varieties to 50%, irrigation to 38%, and organic fertilizer to 25%.
• The strategy emphasizes a 'Just Transition' to ensure that the shift from extractive to regenerative economics provides social protection and equitably replaces fossil fuel revenues by 2060.
• Key financial enablers include the operationalization of the National Climate Change Fund established under the Climate Change Act 2021 and the establishment of an Emission Trading System (ETS).

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5170.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060. n.d. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5170.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5170.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendnigerias, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{NIGERIA’S LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY – 2060}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5170.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }