Implications for Australia of a 1.5°C future

This research paper by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines the implications for Australia of the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C. It argues that the remaining global carbon budget is extremely limited and that Australia's current emissions and reliance on fossil fuel exports are incompatible with these targets.

• To have a reasonable likelihood of limiting global warming to below 1.5°C, the global carbon budget from the start of 2015 is estimated to be less than, and potentially significantly less than, 250 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO2).
• Australia's share of the 1.5°C carbon budget is very small; using a generous measure of 1% of a 250 Gt CO2 budget (2.5 Gt CO2), Australia would exhaust its allocation in less than six years based on its current emissions from fossil fuel combustion (approximately 0.4 Gt CO2 per year).
• The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement are insufficient to meet the 1.5°C or 2°C targets. Global emissions are projected to continue growing through the current decade rather than declining, and a 1.5°C budget is expected to be exceeded soon after 2020.
• Relying on 'negative emissions' technologies to overshoot and then reduce atmospheric CO2 is risky. These measures, such as BECCS and afforestation, are often unproven, land-intensive, and may cause adverse impacts on food security, biodiversity, and human rights, or prove ineffective due to climate-driven carbon release.
• Australia's economic dependence on fossil fuel extraction for export is incompatible with the Paris Agreement. Because a 1.5°C or 2°C budget is significantly smaller than the carbon contained in proven reserves, a large majority of these reserves must remain in the ground, meaning the market for Australian fossil fuel exports must rapidly reduce and eventually disappear.
• Australia is already experiencing severe climate impacts, including record high temperatures, worsening bush fire conditions, destruction of ancient forests in Tasmania, and unprecedented bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef.

APA

Kartha, S. (2016). Implications for Australia of a 1.5°C future. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-09-Australia-1-5C-climate-goal.pdf

Chicago

Kartha, Sivan. Implications for Australia of a 1.5°C future. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-09-Australia-1-5C-climate-goal.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kartha |first1=Sivan |title=Implications for Australia of a 1.5°C future |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=September 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-09-Australia-1-5C-climate-goal.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kartha2016implications, author = {Kartha, Sivan}, title = {{Implications for Australia of a 1.5°C future}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = sep, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-09-Australia-1-5C-climate-goal.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }