Implications for Australia of a 1.5°C future

The document examines the limited global carbon budget available to restrict warming to 1.5°C and the resulting necessity for Australia to undergo a rapid energy transformation. It argues that current national pledges under the Paris Agreement are insufficient and that relying on future 'negative emissions' technologies is risky. For Australia, a 'fair share' of the carbon budget would be exhausted in less than six years at current emission levels, necessitating a shift away from fossil fuel extraction and exports.

• To have a reasonable probability of limiting global warming to below 1.5°C, the global carbon budget from the start of 2015 is estimated to be less than, and potentially significantly less than, 250 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO2).
• Australia's share of the 1.5°C carbon budget, even using a generous estimate of 1% of the 250 Gt CO2 budget, would be exhausted in less than six years based on its current emissions of approximately 0.4 Gt of CO2 per year from fossil fuel combustion.
• The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement are inadequate; global emissions are projected to grow through the next decade rather than decline, and a 1.5°C budget will likely be exceeded shortly after 2020.
• Relying on 'negative emissions' technologies to stretch the carbon budget is considered premature and risky because these measures are often technologically unproven, may have high ecological and social costs regarding land use, and are susceptible to reversal by climate-driven events like forest dieback.
• Australia's continued role as a fossil fuel supplier is incompatible with the Paris Agreement goals, as the majority of proven reserves and recoverable resources must remain in the ground to stay within a 1.5°C or 2°C budget.
• Different equity frameworks suggest varying levels of responsibility for Australia: the Australian Climate Change Authority suggests a fair share of approximately 1% of the global budget, while the Civil Society Equity Review approach suggests a target reaching zero emissions by roughly 2025.

APA

Kartha, S. (2016). Implications for Australia of a 1.5°C future. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-09-Australia-1-5C-climate-goal.pdf

Chicago

Kartha, Sivan. Implications for Australia of a 1.5°C future. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-09-Australia-1-5C-climate-goal.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kartha |first1=Sivan |title=Implications for Australia of a 1.5°C future |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=September 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-09-Australia-1-5C-climate-goal.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kartha2016implications, author = {Kartha, Sivan}, title = {{Implications for Australia of a 1.5°C future}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = sep, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2016-09-Australia-1-5C-climate-goal.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }