Climate change adaptation in Swedish forestry: Driving forces, risks and opportunities

This research synthesis brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute summarizes findings from the 2008–2015 Mistra-SWECIA programme regarding climate change adaptation in the Swedish forestry sector. It examines the driving forces, risks, and social barriers affecting the roughly 330,000 individual forest owners who manage about half of Sweden's forests. The document highlights the tension between scientific climate projections and the practical, often gradual, perceptions of forest owners, while also analyzing indirect global climate risks to Sweden's export-dependent forestry economy.

• Climate change is creating a mix of risks and opportunities for Swedish forestry. While there are increased risks of "pest infestations, forest fires and extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and severe damage from storms," there is also a trend where "forest productivity is also increasing."
• Forest owners generally do not view climate change as an immediate crisis, often adopting a "wait and see" approach. This is because they perceive climate change as "gradual, with the most severe impacts still far in the future," and believe they can adjust management practices over time as productivity increases.
• Significant barriers to adaptation include a lack of consensus on effective measures and a distrust of climate science. For instance, over 40% of forest owners view avoiding clear-cutting as effective for managing climate effects, whereas only 17% of forest advisers agree. Some distrust is rooted in past experiences, such as the "acidification debate in the 1980s."
• Personal experience with extreme weather, such as the storms Gudrun (2005) and Per (2007), increases the willingness of forest owners to implement adaptation measures, provided they perceive these events as a "direct result of climate change."
• Sweden's forestry sector is highly vulnerable to indirect global climate impacts due to its export dependence. The document identifies four risk pathways: trade flows (where nearly 90% of pulp and paper and 70% of sawnwood are exported), biophysical flows (such as the northward spread of ticks and potential new pests from Continental Europe), financial flows, and the movement of people (climate refugees).
• Effective science communication for adaptation must meet three criteria: relevance (connecting to local needs and shorter time-frames like 2030–2050), credibility (using robust, peer-reviewed research), and legitimacy (developing recommendations through consultation rather than "from the top down").
• Social network analysis shows that while forest owners frequently communicate with family, neighbours, and business partners, they have rare contact with scientists and forestry authorities. Consequently, news media is the primary source of climate change knowledge, while forestry-specific decisions are heavily influenced by trusted personal networks and forest advisers.

APA

André, K., Swartling, Å. G., Vulturius, G., Olsson, O., Carlsen, H., & Davis, M. (2015). Climate change adaptation in Swedish forestry: Driving forces, risks and opportunities. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-RSB-2015-Mistra-SWECIA-Adaptation-forestry.pdf

Chicago

André, Karin, Åsa Gerger Swartling, Gregor Vulturius, Olle Olsson, Henrik Carlsen, and Marion Davis. Climate change adaptation in Swedish forestry: Driving forces, risks and opportunities. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2015. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-RSB-2015-Mistra-SWECIA-Adaptation-forestry.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=André |first1=Karin |last2=Swartling |first2=Åsa Gerger |last3=Vulturius |first3=Gregor |last4=Olsson |first4=Olle |last5=Carlsen |first5=Henrik |last6=Davis |first6=Marion |title=Climate change adaptation in Swedish forestry: Driving forces, risks and opportunities |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2015 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-RSB-2015-Mistra-SWECIA-Adaptation-forestry.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{andr2015climate, author = {André, Karin and Swartling, Åsa Gerger and Vulturius, Gregor and Olsson, Olle and Carlsen, Henrik and Davis, Marion}, title = {{Climate change adaptation in Swedish forestry: Driving forces, risks and opportunities}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2015}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-RSB-2015-Mistra-SWECIA-Adaptation-forestry.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }