Layout 1

This policy brief, produced as part of the European Commission FP7 funded MEDIATION project, evaluates Robust Decision Making (RDM) as a decision support tool for climate change adaptation. RDM focuses on identifying strategies that perform well across a wide range of plausible futures—prioritizing 'robustness' over 'optimality'—particularly in situations of 'deep uncertainty' where probabilistic data is scarce.

• Robust Decision Making (RDM) is designed for decision-making under 'deep uncertainty,' which occurs when there is little to no probabilistic information available. Unlike traditional cost-benefit analyses that seek optimal options based on economic efficiency, RDM identifies robust strategies that perform acceptably across a wide range of plausible future states.
• The formal application of RDM is a resource-intensive, computer-guided process. It uses data sampling and mining algorithms to 'stress test' strategies against thousands or millions of simulated scenarios to identify vulnerabilities. However, a 'lighter-touch' informal application can be used to test options specifically against climate uncertainty alone when resources are limited.
• RDM is highly applicable to climate adaptation because it can utilize both physical and economic metrics. This flexibility allows it to be used in non-market sectors, such as ecosystems, where traditional economic valuation is difficult or contentious.
• A primary strength of RDM is its ability to identify 'low and no regret' options—near-term strategies that enhance long-term resilience regardless of the specific climate future that unfolds.
• A formal RDM study for the Riverside County Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA) in Southern California found that adaptive strategies were superior to static ones. By expanding groundwater banking and recycling programs while monitoring supply and demand, the agency could eliminate over 80% of initially identified high-cost outcomes.
• An application of RDM in the East Suffolk and Essex Water Resource Zone in England demonstrated that the region's existing water plan was robust because it had already incorporated one of the drier available climate models. The study identified that the regional climate response was the largest source of uncertainty in adaptation planning.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). Layout 1. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-mediation-briefing3-robust-decision-making.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Layout 1. n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-mediation-briefing3-robust-decision-making.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Layout 1 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-mediation-briefing3-robust-decision-making.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendlayout, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Layout 1}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-mediation-briefing3-robust-decision-making.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }