sei-db-2015-food-security-indirect-climate-impacts-5994c103f58bde5b.pdf

This briefing by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines the risk of global food price volatility as an indirect impact of climate change, specifically for import-dependent countries. Using Senegal as a case study, it argues that while pursuing self-sufficiency in staple crops like rice can reduce exposure to international price shocks, it may increase vulnerability to direct domestic climate impacts and create a 'rice risk lock-in'. The document recommends a diversification strategy that balances imports with domestic production and promotes a variety of locally grown crops to enhance climate resilience.

• Climate change is expected to increase the volatility of global food prices by making agricultural production more variable and increasing the risk of crop failures from extreme heat, floods, and droughts. This creates an 'indirect impact' where adverse events in one region affect import-dependent countries through trade.
• The WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) limits the ability of developing countries to stabilize domestic food prices. 'Amber box' measures, which include price supports or production subsidies that distort trade, are restricted, forcing governments to rely on 'green box' measures like direct cash transfers or infrastructure improvements, which require direct government funding rather than generating revenue through tariffs.
• Pursuing total self-sufficiency in a single staple crop can be a risky adaptation strategy because it increases exposure to direct domestic climate impacts and reduces agricultural diversity. This can lead to 'rice risk lock-in', where the displacement of alternative crops removes essential food or cash sources for insecure households during crises.
• A robust adaptation strategy for import-dependent countries involves diversification to balance risks. This includes balancing food imports with domestic production and maintaining a diverse array of domestically grown crops to provide alternatives if a primary staple crop fails.
• Rice markets are particularly susceptible to extreme price spikes because a vast majority of global production—up to 95%—is consumed domestically, leaving a very small volume for international trade. This means a few countries entering or leaving the market can cause significant price instability.
• Senegal's Accelerated Programme for Agriculture (PRACAS) aims for rice self-sufficiency by 2017. The plan relies on the Senegal River Valley (SRV) to meet 60% of demand, with the remaining 40% coming from rainfed systems in the south and the central peanut belt.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). sei-db-2015-food-security-indirect-climate-impacts-5994c103f58bde5b.pdf. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2015-Food-security-indirect-climate-impacts.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. sei-db-2015-food-security-indirect-climate-impacts-5994c103f58bde5b.pdf. n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2015-Food-security-indirect-climate-impacts.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=sei-db-2015-food-security-indirect-climate-impacts-5994c103f58bde5b.pdf |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2015-Food-security-indirect-climate-impacts.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendseidb2015foodsecurityindirectclimateimpacts5994c103f58bde5bpdf, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{sei-db-2015-food-security-indirect-climate-impacts-5994c103f58bde5b.pdf}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2015-Food-security-indirect-climate-impacts.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }