Reducing vulnerability to food price shocks in a changing climate

The document analyzes how climate change increases the risk of food price shocks through both direct impacts on domestic harvests and indirect impacts via global commodity markets. It argues that while many import-dependent countries, such as Senegal, pursue self-sufficiency in staples like rice to avoid international volatility, this approach can create 'rice risk lock-in' by increasing exposure to domestic climate shocks and reducing agricultural diversity. The authors recommend a balanced strategy of diversifying food sources, diets, and import origins to build climate resilience.

• Climate change creates two distinct types of food security risks for import-dependent countries: indirect impacts, where changes in international supply and demand affect global commodity prices, and direct impacts, where climate events cause domestic production failures and local price spikes.
• Pursuing total self-sufficiency in staple crops may be an ineffective adaptation strategy because it increases a country's exposure to direct domestic climate impacts and reduces agricultural diversity, potentially leading to 'rice risk lock-in'.
• The global rice market is particularly susceptible to extreme price shocks because a very small percentage of production is traded internationally, and the market is dominated by a few national trading boards.
• World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) rules limit the ability of developing countries to use price-distorting trade policies, such as tariffs, to stabilize domestic food prices during international crises.
• Senegal's Accelerated Programme for Agriculture in Senegal (PRACAS) aims for rice self-sufficiency by 2017, targeting production of 1,450,000 tonnes, but this focuses heavily on the Senegal River Valley and risks displacing other resilient traditional staples.
• Diversification—balancing domestic production with imports and promoting a variety of domestically grown crops and diets—is recommended as a more effective way to manage climate-related food security risks under high uncertainty.

APA

Benzie, M. (2015). Reducing vulnerability to food price shocks in a changing climate. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2015-Food-security-indirect-climate-impacts.pdf

Chicago

Benzie, Magnus. Reducing vulnerability to food price shocks in a changing climate. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2015. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2015-Food-security-indirect-climate-impacts.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Benzie |first1=Magnus |title=Reducing vulnerability to food price shocks in a changing climate |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2015 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2015-Food-security-indirect-climate-impacts.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{benzie2015reducing, author = {Benzie, Magnus}, title = {{Reducing vulnerability to food price shocks in a changing climate}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2015}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2015-Food-security-indirect-climate-impacts.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }