International transfers under Article 6 in the context of diverse ambition of NDCs

The study investigates how internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) could increase global GHG emissions if countries with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) less stringent than business-as-usual (BAU) projections transfer 'hot air'. Through road-testing 17 countries, the authors evaluate relative and absolute limits on transfers, concluding that while absolute limits are simple, relative limits based on historical emissions (as proposed by Brazil) could more effectively prevent hot air transfers, though they may restrict developing countries with increasing emissions trends.

• There is a material risk that current NDC targets contain significant 'hot air'—where targets are less stringent than business-as-usual (BAU) projections—which could lead to increased aggregated GHG emissions if transferred as ITMOs.
• The transfer of hot air creates a perverse incentive for countries to set future NDC targets at less ambitious levels to maximize economic benefits from international transfers.
• Analysis of 131 NDCs indicates that between 36% and 52% of them could contain hot air in 2030, depending on the mitigation scenario used.
• Relative limits based on average historical GHG emissions, such as those proposed by Brazil, could prevent nearly all hot air transfers but would restrict transfers to countries on a decreasing emissions pathway.
• Absolute limits are simple to implement and provide ex ante certainty, but they are blunt instruments that contain rather than address the specific risk of hot air.
• Road-testing shows that a stringent absolute limit of 1% would prevent approximately 90% of hot air from being transferred.
• Experience from the Kyoto Protocol's Joint Implementation (JI) suggests that simply having a mechanism is insufficient for unit quality; 73% of ERUs were found unlikely to represent additional emission reductions.
• Green Investment Schemes (GISs) under the Kyoto Protocol were generally ineffective at addressing hot air risks because they lacked stringent additionality and quantification standards.
• Carry-over provisions under the Paris Agreement could entrench low mitigation ambition and increase cumulative emissions if hot air from one period is transferred to the next.

APA

Theuer, S. L. H., Schneider, L., Broekhoff, D., & Kollmuss, A. (2017). International transfers under Article 6 in the context of diverse ambition of NDCs. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2017-WP-international-transfers.pdf

Chicago

Theuer, Stephanie La Hoz, Lambert Schneider, Derik Broekhoff, and Anja Kollmuss. International transfers under Article 6 in the context of diverse ambition of NDCs. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2017. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2017-WP-international-transfers.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Theuer |first1=Stephanie La Hoz |last2=Schneider |first2=Lambert |last3=Broekhoff |first3=Derik |last4=Kollmuss |first4=Anja |title=International transfers under Article 6 in the context of diverse ambition of NDCs |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2017 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2017-WP-international-transfers.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{theuer2017international, author = {Theuer, Stephanie La Hoz and Schneider, Lambert and Broekhoff, Derik and Kollmuss, Anja}, title = {{International transfers under Article 6 in the context of diverse ambition of NDCs}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2017}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2017-WP-international-transfers.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }