Development of the Baltic Power System for the utilisation of the region’s vast renewable energy potential

The policy brief examines how the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) can utilise their renewable energy potential to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. It argues that current grid infrastructure is insufficient and that significant investments in interconnections with Nordic countries—specifically Sweden and Finland—are essential to balance wind power fluctuations and reduce dependency on non-EU energy sources. The analysis compares various production and interconnection scenarios, finding that a 100% renewable target is feasible if the region integrates more deeply with the Nordic Power System (NPS).

• Estonia has the potential to transition its current oil shale-dominated power production to be 100% based on domestic renewable fuels and energy sources by 2050, provided relevant policies and transmission grid developments are implemented.
• The Baltic States possess significant renewable energy potential; for instance, Estonia's 2050 potential is estimated at 31.9 TWh, comprising off-shore wind (5.84 TWh), on-shore wind (4.57 TWh), biogas (3.71 TWh), solar (3.87 TWh), and wood biomass (12.31 TWh).
• Current grid infrastructure in areas with high wind potential, such as the west coast, islands, and the EEZ marine area, is underdeveloped, and Estonia lacks the internal production capacities, such as hydro plants, needed to balance wind fluctuations.
• Integration with the Nordic Power System (NPS) would allow the Baltic States to use Norwegian and Swedish hydropower capacity to balance new wind power capacities.
• The 'LowCO2withRUSBEL' scenario, which targets 100% renewables while maintaining connections to Russia and Belarus, is identified as the most effective for ensuring a shift to low-carbon production. This would require 2,232 MW of new interconnections between Baltic and Nordic countries, including a 600 MW link between Estonia and Finland and a 255 MW link between Estonia and Sweden.
• Under the LowCO2withRUSBEL scenario, the three Baltic States could produce 35.806 TWh of renewable electricity by 2050, nearly covering domestic demand, with any deficit met by cheaper hydro electricity imports from NPS countries.
• The existing ENTSO-E 10-year network development plan (TYNDP 2014) is insufficient to achieve a low-carbon energy system in the Baltic States because it only proposes the 700 MW NordBalt DC interconnector between Sweden and Lithuania.
• Scenarios that do not prioritise renewable production (MIX scenarios) would result in significantly less renewable electricity and an increased dependency on imports from Russia and Belarus, thereby reducing energy security.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). Development of the Baltic Power System for the utilisation of the region’s vast renewable energy potential. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/norstrat-development-of-the-baltic-power-system-for-the-utilisation-of-the-regions-vast-renewable-energy-potential.-final.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Development of the Baltic Power System for the utilisation of the region’s vast renewable energy potential. n.d. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/norstrat-development-of-the-baltic-power-system-for-the-utilisation-of-the-regions-vast-renewable-energy-potential.-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Development of the Baltic Power System for the utilisation of the region’s vast renewable energy potential |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/norstrat-development-of-the-baltic-power-system-for-the-utilisation-of-the-regions-vast-renewable-energy-potential.-final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutenddevelopment, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Development of the Baltic Power System for the utilisation of the region’s vast renewable energy potential}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/norstrat-development-of-the-baltic-power-system-for-the-utilisation-of-the-regions-vast-renewable-energy-potential.-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }