Development of the Baltic Power System for the utilisation of the region’s vast renewable energy potential

This policy brief, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre as part of the NORSTRAT project, examines the transmission grid developments required to transition the Baltic States to a carbon-neutral power sector by 2050. The research focuses on the feasibility of replacing oil shale and fossil fuel dependency with renewable energy sources, specifically wind and biomass, through increased interconnection with the Nordic Power System and Continental Europe.

• Estonia's electricity production, which is currently dominated by oil shale, could transition to being 100% based on domestic renewable fuels and energy sources by 2050, provided that relevant policies are implemented and the transmission grid and interconnections are developed.
• In 2014, the Baltic States experienced a combined electricity deficit of 7.1 TWh, with total consumption at 25.9 TWh and aggregate production at 18.8 TWh. This shortfall was covered by imports from Nordic countries (approximately 49%) and third countries (51%).
• The Baltic States possess significant renewable energy potential. In Estonia, the National Long-Term Energy Strategy estimates a 2050 potential of 31.9 TWh, comprising wood biomass (12.31 TWh), off-shore wind (5.84 TWh), on-shore wind (4.57 TWh), solar (3.87 TWh), and biogas (3.71 TWh).
• Full utilization of renewable resources is hindered by an underdeveloped grid in areas with high wind potential, such as the west coast, islands, and the EEZ marine area. Integration with the Nordic Power System is necessary to use Norwegian and Swedish hydropower to balance wind power fluctuations.
• The 'LowCO2withRUSBEL' scenario, which maintains connections to Russia and Belarus while targeting 100% renewables, is identified as the most effective for shifting to low-carbon production. This would require investing 2,232 MW in new interconnections between the Baltic and Nordic countries, including a 600 MW link between Estonia and Finland and a 255 MW link between Estonia and Sweden.
• Under the LowCO2withRUSBEL scenario, the three Baltic States could produce 35.806 TWh of renewable electricity by 2050, nearly covering domestic demand. In this scenario, Estonia alone would produce 10.525 TWh, with 7.250 TWh from wind and 2.803 TWh from biomass.
• Scenarios that do not prioritize renewable investment (MIXwithRUSBEL and MIXnoRUSBEL) result in significantly lower renewable production and increased dependency on imports from Russia and Belarus, which reduces energy security.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). Development of the Baltic Power System for the utilisation of the region’s vast renewable energy potential. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/norstrat-development-of-the-baltic-power-system-for-the-utilisation-of-the-regions-vast-renewable-energy-potential.-final.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Development of the Baltic Power System for the utilisation of the region’s vast renewable energy potential. n.d. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/norstrat-development-of-the-baltic-power-system-for-the-utilisation-of-the-regions-vast-renewable-energy-potential.-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Development of the Baltic Power System for the utilisation of the region’s vast renewable energy potential |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/norstrat-development-of-the-baltic-power-system-for-the-utilisation-of-the-regions-vast-renewable-energy-potential.-final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutenddevelopment, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Development of the Baltic Power System for the utilisation of the region’s vast renewable energy potential}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/norstrat-development-of-the-baltic-power-system-for-the-utilisation-of-the-regions-vast-renewable-energy-potential.-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }