Escenarios de Cambio Climático: Método k-NN

The document outlines a methodology employed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to bridge the gap between global climate models and local water resource planning. Because General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project lack the spatial resolution (40–120km) necessary for local hydrological assessment, SEI uses the k-NN statistical downscaling method. This process involves selecting high-performing GCMs based on eight climate attributes and using them to create synthetic daily series for temperature and precipitation from 2020 to 2100. These series are then integrated into the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system to explore robust adaptation alternatives for water service providers and environmental agencies.

• General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project are the primary source for long-term climate change scenarios, but their spatial resolution of 40–120km is insufficient for local water resource planning.
• The k-NN method is a non-parametric statistical downscaling technique that generates synthetic daily climate series for temperature and precipitation for the period 2020–2100, which are then used to inform the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system.
• The k-NN methodology preserves attributes from historical series and captures daily resolution climate attributes while maintaining spatial correlation, allowing for the construction of climate series tailored to specific planning needs.
• The process for generating synthetic series involves eight steps, including the compilation of at least two decades of historical daily meteorology, the selection of GCMs based on eight quantitative and qualitative climate attributes, and the application of k-NN to predict local climate attributes (Y) using GCM attributes (X).

APA

Moncada, A., Pérez, C. F., & Angarita, H. (2020). Escenarios de Cambio Climático: Método k-NN. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/knndiscussionbrief-2.pdf

Chicago

Moncada, Angélica, Cristo Facundo Pérez, and Héctor Angarita. Escenarios de Cambio Climático: Método k-NN. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2020. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/knndiscussionbrief-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Moncada |first1=Angélica |last2=Pérez |first2=Cristo Facundo |last3=Angarita |first3=Héctor |title=Escenarios de Cambio Climático: Método k-NN |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2020 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/knndiscussionbrief-2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{moncada2020escenarios, author = {Moncada, Angélica and Pérez, Cristo Facundo and Angarita, Héctor}, title = {{Escenarios de Cambio Climático: Método k-NN}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2020}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/knndiscussionbrief-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }