Greenhouse Gases and Human Well-Being

The paper examines the correlation between CO2 emissions per capita and PPP-adjusted GDP per capita across 174 countries, using China to illustrate the challenges of balancing development with emissions reductions. It finds that income is the strongest determinant of emissions and argues that current high-income lifestyles are incompatible with low-carbon stabilization targets, necessitating technological innovation.

• There is a high correlation between income and emissions, with PPP-adjusted GDP per capita alone explaining 65 percent of the variability in emissions per capita.
• Regression analysis of 174 countries indicates that for every $1,000 increase in income per capita, there is a 0.38 ton increase in emissions per capita. Other significant drivers include oil production per capita (0.8 ton increase per $1,000) and status as an Eastern European or former Soviet transition country (3.0 tons higher emissions per capita).
• China exhibits a very high emissions intensity of 0.9 tons per $1,000 of income per capita, the 8th highest globally. This is driven largely by its energy mix, as 84 percent of its energy is produced from fossil fuels.
• Analysis of 30 Chinese provinces shows that 23 are above the 90th percentile for emissions intensity compared to the international dataset. In China, emissions are significantly influenced by coal reserves, with a 1.3 ton increase in emissions per capita for every 1,000 ton increase in coal reserves per capita.
• The data does not support the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for carbon emissions; instead, the relationship between emissions and income is exponential, meaning emissions increase at a slightly increasing rate as income grows.
• Current high-consumption lifestyles are incompatible with low-carbon stabilization targets. No high-income country has emissions lower than 5 tons per capita, while achieving a 450ppm stabilization concentration would require global per capita emissions to drop below 1 ton by 2100.
• The financial cost of emissions reduction could be prohibitive for developing nations. For China, reducing emissions to 1 ton per capita at an average cost of $80 per ton would cost 16 percent of its GDP.

APA

Stanton, E. A. (2009). Greenhouse Gases and Human Well-Being. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/greenhouse-gases-human-wellbeing.pdf

Chicago

Stanton, Elizabeth A. Greenhouse Gases and Human Well-Being. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2009. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/greenhouse-gases-human-wellbeing.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanton |first1=Elizabeth A. |title=Greenhouse Gases and Human Well-Being |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=31 March 2009 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/greenhouse-gases-human-wellbeing.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanton2009greenhouse, author = {Stanton, Elizabeth A.}, title = {{Greenhouse Gases and Human Well-Being}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2009}, month = mar, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/greenhouse-gases-human-wellbeing.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }