CO2 abatement potential, cost, enablers, barriers and recommendations: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine

The report evaluates ten climate solutions across five European countries, finding a total abatement potential of 149 Mt CO2eq by 2030, representing 13% of the region's projected emissions. Energy efficiency in buildings and industry are identified as the most cost-effective solutions, offering net savings, while onshore wind and solar power provide significant potential, particularly in the Baltic states. The study highlights that while Poland and Ukraine offer the highest absolute abatement, the relative impact is greater in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Key barriers include policies favoring fossil fuels and market uncertainty, while enablers include EU regulations and declining renewable technology costs.

• If the ten selected climate solutions are implemented together across the five target countries, the total abatement potential is 149 Mt CO2eq, which represents 13% of the region's projected greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
• Energy efficiency measures in buildings and industry are the most cost-efficient solutions, as they are projected to generate net savings by 2030: -2.9 billion euros for buildings and -0.5 billion euros for industry.
• The buildings and household sector offers the highest overall abatement potential at 67 Mt CO2eq, primarily through energy efficiency and bioenergy for heating. The energy sector follows with 41 Mt CO2eq, driven largely by onshore wind and solar power.
• In absolute terms, Poland and Ukraine provide the majority of the abatement potential due to their larger populations and economies. However, in relative terms, the impact is higher in the Baltic states, where the total additional abatement potential as a share of 2030 emissions is 40% for Estonia, 30% for Latvia, and 30% for Lithuania.
• Onshore wind power is the most promising solution for the Baltic countries, with abatement potentials representing 12% of 2030 net GHG emissions in Estonia, 14% in Latvia, and 16% in Lithuania.
• The highest unit costs for abatement are associated with electric vehicles (104 €/t CO2eq) and bioenergy for heating (77 €/t CO2eq), while solar power, onshore wind, and reforestation each cost approximately 20 euros per tonne CO2eq.
• The primary barriers to large-scale deployment of these solutions are policies that favor fossil fuel-based economies and uncertainty regarding legislative and market developments.

APA

L., T., H., P., P., K., T., K., K., K., O., G., & K., K. (2018). CO2 abatement potential, cost, enablers, barriers and recommendations: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/green-to-scale-technical-report.pdf

Chicago

L., Tammiste,, Poltimäe, H., Kuldna, P., Kallaste, T., Kirsimaa, K., Grünvald, O., and Kuusk, K. CO2 abatement potential, cost, enablers, barriers and recommendations: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/green-to-scale-technical-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{l2018co2, author = {L., Tammiste, and H., Poltimäe, and P., Kuldna, and T., Kallaste, and K., Kirsimaa, and O., Grünvald, and K., Kuusk,}, title = {{CO2 abatement potential, cost, enablers, barriers and recommendations: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/green-to-scale-technical-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }