Examining wood-energy systems with integrated assessment and landscape models

The paper argues that traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) often fail to accurately capture the complexities of biomass energy and land cover, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. By linking the TIAM-ECN economic model with the MoFuSS geospatial model, the author demonstrates that projected woodfuel demand in Kenya exceeds the sustainable supply of woody biomass. The study highlights a gap in current modelling where economic optimization does not account for physical landscape constraints, suggesting that future models must better integrate market responses, such as price increases and fuel substitution, with spatial biomass availability.

• Traditional woodfuels in sub-Saharan Africa contribute significantly to environmental and health burdens, potentially exceeding industrial sources in their climate impacts due to land cover change and emissions of climate-forcing pollutants.
• Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) generally struggle to model biomass energy and land cover accurately, especially for traditional fuels like fuelwood and charcoal which are traded in informal markets with unknown prices and supply levels.
• In a case study of Kenya, the TIAM-ECN model's business-as-usual projections for woodfuel demand exceed the country's sustainable supply of wood under current management and biomass stocks.
• Simulations using the MoFuSS model indicate that under projected demand, Kenya's woody biomass stocks would decline by approximately 15%, resulting in a 50% drop in met demand and millions of tons of unmet demand annually.
• Initial tests in the TIAM model showed that doubling or tripling the prices of fuelwood and charcoal had no discernible effect on demand, which the author suggests does not reflect the actual fuel substitution behavior observed in Kenya.
• The study concludes that while IAMs provide economic and energy system insights and landscape models simulate environmental constraints, they must be better linked to account for market forces, such as how price increases drive consumers toward alternative fuels or suppliers toward more efficient production.

APA

Bailis, R. (2019). Examining wood-energy systems with integrated assessment and landscape models. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/examining-wood-energy-systems-with-integrated-assessment-and-landscape-models.pdf

Chicago

Bailis, Rob. Examining wood-energy systems with integrated assessment and landscape models. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2019. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/examining-wood-energy-systems-with-integrated-assessment-and-landscape-models.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bailis |first1=Rob |title=Examining wood-energy systems with integrated assessment and landscape models |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=May 2019 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/examining-wood-energy-systems-with-integrated-assessment-and-landscape-models.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bailis2019examining, author = {Bailis, Rob}, title = {{Examining wood-energy systems with integrated assessment and landscape models}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, month = may, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/examining-wood-energy-systems-with-integrated-assessment-and-landscape-models.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }