The inequality-emissions link and what it means for the 1.5oC goal

This methodological note from the Stockholm Environment Institute describes an analysis of the distribution of global consumption emissions in 2030, based on the assumption that countries fulfill their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. The report highlights a persistent link between income inequality and carbon emissions, noting that the richest populations continue to consume a disproportionate share of the carbon budget required to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

• Historical analysis from 2020 indicates that the wealthiest 10% of the global population were responsible for 46% of emissions growth between 1990 and 2015, and consumed more than 25% of the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget during that period.
• Projections for 2030 suggest that global emissions will remain roughly equal to 2015 levels if countries fully comply with their NDCs, which is significantly higher than the median estimate of 18 GtCO2 required to limit warming to 1.5°C.
• The distribution of emissions is projected to remain highly skewed by income in 2030: the top 0.1% are expected to account for 5% of absolute emissions (1.9 GtCO2) with a per capita emission of 226 tCO2, while the bottom 50% are projected to account for 10% of absolute emissions (3.5 GtCO2) with a per capita emission of 0.88 tCO2.
• The analysis assumes that even under moderately progressive socio-economic development, the consumption of high-consuming populations would exceed the levels necessary to maintain the 1.5°C goal, leaving minimal room for the poorest households to increase emissions to improve living standards.
• The methodology for 2030 projections uses a country-specific emissions floor set at an income equal to 30% of the median income and an adjusted emissions ceiling for the top 0.1% that rises from 300 tCO2/capita in 2015 to 567 tCO2/capita in 2030.

APA

Ghosh, E., Kartha, S., & Nazareth, A. (2021). The inequality-emissions link and what it means for the 1.5oC goal. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/220109a-burton-ghosh-inequality-report-2111a.pdf

Chicago

Ghosh, Emily, Sivan Kartha, and Anisha Nazareth. The inequality-emissions link and what it means for the 1.5oC goal. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2021. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/220109a-burton-ghosh-inequality-report-2111a.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ghosh |first1=Emily |last2=Kartha |first2=Sivan |last3=Nazareth |first3=Anisha |title=The inequality-emissions link and what it means for the 1.5oC goal |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/220109a-burton-ghosh-inequality-report-2111a.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ghosh2021inequalityemissions, author = {Ghosh, Emily and Kartha, Sivan and Nazareth, Anisha}, title = {{The inequality-emissions link and what it means for the 1.5oC goal}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/220109a-burton-ghosh-inequality-report-2111a.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }