Climate Change and Hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide Impacts and Policy Implications

The paper assesses the vulnerability of hydropower in the Zambezi River Basin to climate change, noting that a drying climate could reduce output by 10–20%. While long-term regional cost increases are small, hydro-dependent nations like Mozambique and Zambia may face near-term cost increases of 20–30%. The potential displacement of hydropower by coal could increase regional greenhouse gas emissions, impacting commitments under the Paris Agreement and necessitating stronger cooperative governance and integrated electricity planning.

• Climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin are asymmetrical: a drying climate could lead to a 10–20% decline in output from major hydropower plants, whereas a wetting climate would only result in a marginal increase.
• While long-term regional electricity generation cost increases are relatively small (under 1%), hydro-dependent countries such as Zambia and Mozambique could experience near-term cost increases between 20% and 30%.
• Regional greenhouse gas emissions may increase by an amount equivalent to a large coal-fired power station if coal is used to displace lost hydropower capacity, which affects the Paris Agreement commitments of southern African countries.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2017). Climate Change and Hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide Impacts and Policy Implications. https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-change-and-hydropower-in-the-southern-african-power-pool-and-zambezi-river-basin-system-wide-impacts-and-policy-implications/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Climate Change and Hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide Impacts and Policy Implications. 2017. https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-change-and-hydropower-in-the-southern-african-power-pool-and-zambezi-river-basin-system-wide-impacts-and-policy-implications/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Climate Change and Hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide Impacts and Policy Implications |date=23 January 2017 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-change-and-hydropower-in-the-southern-african-power-pool-and-zambezi-river-basin-system-wide-impacts-and-policy-implications/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2017climate, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Climate Change and Hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide Impacts and Policy Implications}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2017}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-change-and-hydropower-in-the-southern-african-power-pool-and-zambezi-river-basin-system-wide-impacts-and-policy-implications/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }