Preparing for HECC

This research paper compares how the European Union, Hungary, Portugal, and Scotland incorporate high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios—those exceeding 4°C—into adaptation decision-making, finding that such scenarios are not routinely used because decision-makers perceive them as low-probability or distant events.

• The paper examines whether high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios, defined as those going beyond 4°C, are integrated into adaptation decision-making across the European Union, Hungary, Portugal, and Scotland. It specifically analyzes the use of HECC scenarios, the role of uncertainty, and the types of information and socio-economic drivers used in these processes.
• Decision-makers do not routinely include HECC scenarios in existing climate actions, as they view these scenarios as having a low probability or occurring in the distant future. Additionally, non-climate drivers are often perceived as being as important as, or more important than, climate change by themselves.
• While there is a need for more information regarding sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts, uncertainty regarding climate change is not considered a significant barrier to decision-making. The paper suggests a need to understand the institutional and individual challenges resulting from the tension between adapting to HECC scenarios versus lower temperature increases, such as those targeted by the Paris Agreement.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2018). Preparing for HECC. https://www.sei.org/publications/preparing-for-hecc/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Preparing for HECC. 2018. https://www.sei.org/publications/preparing-for-hecc/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Preparing for HECC |date=19 June 2018 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/preparing-for-hecc/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2018preparing, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Preparing for HECC}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/preparing-for-hecc/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }