Climate Damages in the FUND Model: A Disaggregated Analysis

The analysis reveals that the FUND model, used by the U.S. government to calculate the social cost of carbon, relies on outdated research from 1996 or earlier and contains significant modeling errors in its temperature-yield equations. The model projects a net benefit for agriculture due to CO2 fertilization, though this is offset by other climate damages.

• The FUND model projects that climate change will result in a net benefit for agriculture, primarily driven by CO2 fertilization, although this is offset by a slightly larger estimate of other damages.
• The agricultural modeling in FUND contains technical errors where the temperature-yield equation nearly divides by zero for certain Monte Carlo parameter values, and the optimal temperature variation exceeds physically plausible limits, with 95% confidence intervals spanning 17°C above and below current temperatures.
• The agricultural estimates used in the FUND model are based on outdated research published in or before 1996, making the model's use for setting public policy arguably inappropriate without updates.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2012). Climate Damages in the FUND Model: A Disaggregated Analysis. https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-damages-in-the-fund-model-a-disaggregated-analysis/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Climate Damages in the FUND Model: A Disaggregated Analysis. 2012. https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-damages-in-the-fund-model-a-disaggregated-analysis/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Climate Damages in the FUND Model: A Disaggregated Analysis |date=12 April 2012 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-damages-in-the-fund-model-a-disaggregated-analysis/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2012climate, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Climate Damages in the FUND Model: A Disaggregated Analysis}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-damages-in-the-fund-model-a-disaggregated-analysis/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }