Climate Conundrum: Could a Transitional Agreement Offer a Way Out?

The document examines the risk of climate negotiations losing credibility due to complexity and economic uncertainty. It proposes a two-stage approach: a flexible transitional system (2013–2020) with varied commitments, followed by a 'hard shell' long-term regime (2020–2035) aligned with 2050 goals. This strategy aims to preserve the process's essence while integrating sustainable development goals from Rio+20 and data from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.

• Continuing with 'business as usual' in COP negotiations risks weakening the climate regime to a point where it cannot provide the stable framework required for investments to reduce global fossil fuel dependence.
• The author proposes a transitional system for 2013–20 characterized by flexible commitments for different countries, which would be supported by a 'hard shell' agreement to negotiate a long-term regime for 2020–35 with a 2050 perspective.
• A transitional approach would allow long-term negotiations to be informed by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (expected 2013–14) and align climate action with the global sustainable development goals of the Rio+20 Conference in 2012.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2011). Climate Conundrum: Could a Transitional Agreement Offer a Way Out? https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-conundrum-could-a-transitional-agreement-offer-a-way-out/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Climate Conundrum: Could a Transitional Agreement Offer a Way Out? 2011. https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-conundrum-could-a-transitional-agreement-offer-a-way-out/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Climate Conundrum: Could a Transitional Agreement Offer a Way Out? |date=17 January 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-conundrum-could-a-transitional-agreement-offer-a-way-out/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2011climate, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Climate Conundrum: Could a Transitional Agreement Offer a Way Out?}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-conundrum-could-a-transitional-agreement-offer-a-way-out/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }