Systematic exploration of scenario spaces

The paper introduces Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), a systematic methodology designed to create sets of scenarios that are mathematically maximally diverse to avoid the common pitfalls of conservatism and imbalance in decision-making and policy analysis.

• The authors identify two primary problems at the scenario set level when used for robustness in analysis and decision-making: conservatism, where scenarios remain too close to a business-as-usual trajectory, and a lack of balance resulting from the arbitrary mixing of conservative and extreme scenarios.
• The paper proposes Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), a methodology that uses a set of variables and associated states to generate scenario sets that are quantifiable and maximally different, ensuring they best span the entire set of feasible scenarios.
• An ex-post analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario storylines demonstrated that they were not maximally diverse, leading the authors to argue for the importance of diversity in scenario sets for climate change research, specifically for adaptation planning and emissions reduction.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2016). Systematic exploration of scenario spaces. https://www.sei.org/publications/systematic-exploration-of-scenario-spaces/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Systematic exploration of scenario spaces. 2016. https://www.sei.org/publications/systematic-exploration-of-scenario-spaces/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Systematic exploration of scenario spaces |date=15 March 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/systematic-exploration-of-scenario-spaces/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2016systematic, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Systematic exploration of scenario spaces}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = mar, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/systematic-exploration-of-scenario-spaces/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }