Systematic exploration of scenario spaces

The paper introduces Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), a methodology designed to create scenario sets that are mathematically maximally diverse, avoiding the common pitfalls of conservatism and imbalance. The authors demonstrate the utility of SDA by applying it to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios, finding that the existing storylines were not maximally diverse.

• The authors identify two primary problems at the scenario set level when used for decision-making: conservatism, where scenarios cluster around a business-as-usual trajectory, and a lack of balance resulting from the arbitrary mixing of conservative and extreme scenarios.
• The proposed Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA) methodology generates scenario sets from variables and states that are quantifiable and maximally different, ensuring the best possible span of all feasible scenarios.
• An ex-post analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenario storylines revealed that they were not maximally diverse, suggesting a need for greater diversity in climate change research scenarios to better address emissions reduction and adaptation planning.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2016). Systematic exploration of scenario spaces. https://www.sei.org/publications/systematic-exploration-of-scenario-spaces/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Systematic exploration of scenario spaces. 2016. https://www.sei.org/publications/systematic-exploration-of-scenario-spaces/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Systematic exploration of scenario spaces |date=15 March 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/systematic-exploration-of-scenario-spaces/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2016systematic, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Systematic exploration of scenario spaces}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = mar, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/systematic-exploration-of-scenario-spaces/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }