ECONOMIC MODEL MANUAL

The document describes an Excel-based economic model designed to assess the Nigerian solar value chain, specifically focusing on Solar Home Systems (SHS) and mini-grids. It outlines how users can simulate different scenarios—importation, local assembly, and local manufacturing—to determine their effects on product pricing, job creation, government revenue, and greenhouse gas emissions. The manual details the model's dashboards, input sheets, and the underlying cost-per-watt and bottom-up methodologies used to derive costs and tariffs.

• The economic model is designed to help stakeholders identify efficiencies and economies of scale in Nigeria's solar upstream value chain, specifically assessing the viability of local assembly or manufacturing.
• The model evaluates the impact of various policy and financial drivers on solar adoption, including the effects of importation tariffs and subsidies from the Nigerian Electrification Project on SHS pricing and mini-grid tariffs.
• The tool tracks several key outcome indicators resulting from public and private interventions, including the number of jobs created, product prices, government revenue, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings.
• For Solar Home Systems (SHS), the model utilizes a cost-per-watt methodology to aggregate costs from the raw material level up to the final unit cost across three scenarios: importation, assembly, and manufacturing.
• The mini-grid cost tariff is calculated using a bottom-up approach that aggregates development, generation, distribution, and metering costs, which are then divided by the total power generated over the asset's useful life.
• The model includes specific assumptions for job creation per 1MW of added capacity: 75 downstream jobs, 25 upstream jobs for an assembler, and 13 upstream jobs for a manufacturer.
• The model assesses Nigeria's export potential within the ECOWAS region by comparing the price and delivery time of Nigerian-assembled SHS against those imported from China.

APA

Sustainable Energy for All (n.d.). ECONOMIC MODEL MANUAL. https://www.seforall.org/system/files/2021-02/SVC-Economic-Model-SEforALL.pdf

Chicago

Sustainable Energy for All. ECONOMIC MODEL MANUAL. n.d. https://www.seforall.org/system/files/2021-02/SVC-Economic-Model-SEforALL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Sustainable Energy for All |title=ECONOMIC MODEL MANUAL |url=https://www.seforall.org/system/files/2021-02/SVC-Economic-Model-SEforALL.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sustainableenergyforallndeconomic, author = {{Sustainable Energy for All}}, title = {{ECONOMIC MODEL MANUAL}}, institution = {Sustainable Energy for All}, url = {https://www.seforall.org/system/files/2021-02/SVC-Economic-Model-SEforALL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }