Botswana’s Coal: Dead in the Water or Economic Game Changer?

Botswana possesses 212 billion tonnes of coal, offering potential for economic diversification away from diamonds. However, the document argues that a coal export industry is likely economically unfeasible due to massive infrastructure costs—specifically a proposed $10 billion railway to Namibia—and environmental constraints. Instead, the author suggests that integrating regional fossil fuels for electricity production could address Southern Africa's power crisis, provided there is political cooperation, particularly from South Africa, and until solar baseload power becomes a viable alternative.

• Botswana has significant coal reserves totaling 212 billion tonnes, though most are low grade. These deposits could potentially support an export industry of 36 million tonnes per annum (Mt/a) in the short term, potentially peaking at 72 Mt/a by 2024.
• Developing a coal export industry is deemed economically unfeasible because the cost of necessary infrastructure far exceeds projected revenues. A proposed Trans-Kalahari railway line to Walvis Bay would cost approximately $10 billion in capital and $27 billion in operating costs over 30 years, while expected export revenues through 2026 are only $16.48 billion, leading to a projected net loss of $20.52 billion.
• Coal extraction and export face severe environmental and geographic constraints. Botswana is landlocked and water-scarce; exporting 72 Mt/a would require 5,756,400 m3 of water annually, likely necessitating expensive piping from the Zambezi River. Additionally, using Walvis Bay as a port would require costly dredging and pose risks to Namibian fish stocks.
• India is identified as Botswana's primary target market for coal because India faces a genuine domestic supply shortage, unlike China, where imports are driven by internal logistics and environmental pressures.
• Regional electricity production is a viable alternative to exports, but it is hindered by a lack of political cooperation. Specifically, South Africa's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) has not provided purchasing agreements for the 1,200 MW Mmamabule Energy Project (MEP), despite the mutual benefit of increasing regional power supply.
• The document argues that utilizing coal and gas for regional electrification is a more immediate solution to Southern Africa's power crisis than waiting for solar baseload power, which is not yet a reliable or cost-competitive source.

APA

Harvey, R. (2014). Botswana’s Coal: Dead in the Water or Economic Game Changer? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Policy-Note-4.pdf

Chicago

Harvey, Ross. Botswana’s Coal: Dead in the Water or Economic Game Changer? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2014. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Policy-Note-4.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Harvey |first1=Ross |title=Botswana’s Coal: Dead in the Water or Economic Game Changer? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=November 2014 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Policy-Note-4.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harvey2014botswanas, author = {Harvey, Ross}, title = {{Botswana’s Coal: Dead in the Water or Economic Game Changer?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2014}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Policy-Note-4.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }