‘Poor–Old’ BRICS: Demographic Trends and Policy Challenges

The document analyzes the demographic transition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, noting that all are facing population ageing while still in a middle-income economic phase. It highlights the risks of economic stagnation, fiscal pressure on pensions and healthcare, and the political challenges of raising retirement ages. The author recommends that BRICS members leverage their collective resources to invest in human capital, assistive technologies, and age-friendly urban planning, while sharing policy lessons to create a sustainable development precedent for other Global South countries.

• BRICS members are experiencing a phenomenon described as 'getting old before getting rich', where population ageing occurs during the middle-income economic phase, potentially leading to socioeconomic stagnation.
• The speed and timing of the demographic transition vary across the group: Russia is the 'oldest' and in sustained population decline, China has passed its population peak as of 2021, Brazil is ageing rapidly, while India and South Africa are currently 'younger' but will enter ageing categories in 2023 and 2030 respectively.
• Population ageing creates significant fiscal pressures by increasing the elder dependency ratio, which raises government spending on healthcare, elder care, and social security, potentially increasing government debt.
• Efforts to increase the retirement age to mitigate labour force declines have met with significant political resistance and public protests in the 'older' BRICS members, specifically in Russia in 2018 and Brazil in 2019.
• To compensate for a declining working-age population, the document argues that countries must invest in the education and human capital of younger cohorts to ensure their productivity exceeds that of the retiring generation.
• Elderly women are identified as a particularly vulnerable group due to longer life expectancies combined with lower lifetime earnings and fewer pension entitlements, increasing their risk of poverty and violence.
• China is highlighted as a leader in 'elderly tech' and assistive technologies, providing a model for other BRICS members to reduce care costs and foster new economic growth through joint ventures or imports.

APA

Johnston, L. A. (2023). ‘Poor–Old’ BRICS: Demographic Trends and Policy Challenges. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OP-351-AGDP-Johnston-FINAL-WEB.pdf

Chicago

Johnston, Lauren A. ‘Poor–Old’ BRICS: Demographic Trends and Policy Challenges. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OP-351-AGDP-Johnston-FINAL-WEB.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Johnston |first1=Lauren A. |title=‘Poor–Old’ BRICS: Demographic Trends and Policy Challenges |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=October 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OP-351-AGDP-Johnston-FINAL-WEB.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{johnston2023poorold, author = {Johnston, Lauren A.}, title = {{‘Poor–Old’ BRICS: Demographic Trends and Policy Challenges}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = oct, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OP-351-AGDP-Johnston-FINAL-WEB.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }