International Trade and Emerging Markets Since the Crisis

The document analyzes the divergence in economic recovery between Western economies and emerging markets following the 2008 financial crisis. It argues that while the world avoided 1930s-style tariff wars, a new era of 'creeping protectionism' has emerged through non-tariff barriers, industrial subsidies, and regulatory standards. The author highlights a leadership vacuum in global trade governance as the US and EU adopt defensive postures, while emerging powers like China, India, and Brazil remain reactive and hampered by domestic structural weaknesses.

• The 2008 financial crisis caused the most significant deglobalisation since the Second World War, though it did not lead to a return of 1930s-style protectionism.
• Economic performance diverged post-crisis, with emerging markets, particularly in Asia, recovering more rapidly than the West, which faced deeper recessions and slower growth.
• A return to 'big government' through massive bank bailouts and fiscal stimulus has created a risk of 'creeping protectionism' via non-tariff regulatory barriers, similar to the patterns of the 1970s and 1980s.
• The United States has largely abandoned its traditional leadership role in international trade, creating a global vacuum in the coordination of open market initiatives.
• China has become a dominant force in the global economy and a 'big three' player, but its growth is hampered by a lack of domestic structural reforms and a reliance on state-directed investment.
• India and Brazil are identified as second-tier emerging powers that have weathered the crisis well but remain constrained by high domestic regulatory barriers and a lack of second-generation reforms.
• Russia is characterized as the most protectionist of the BRIC nations, utilizing state capitalism and 'hard mercantilism' to control its economy and energy assets.
• South Africa is described as a third-tier emerging power plagued by low productivity and restrictive employment policies, with trade negotiations often driven by geopolitics rather than commercial interests.
• Climate change policies are predicted to become a 'Trojan Horse' for new standards protectionism, specifically through border tax adjustments and discriminatory green subsidies.
• Global governance mechanisms like the G20 and WTO are currently insufficient to arrest creeping protectionism due to a lack of co-leadership and deep-seated differences in economic policy.

APA

Sally, R. (2011). International Trade and Emerging Markets Since the Crisis. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Occasional-Paper-81.pdf

Chicago

Sally, Razeen. International Trade and Emerging Markets Since the Crisis. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2011. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Occasional-Paper-81.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sally |first1=Razeen |title=International Trade and Emerging Markets Since the Crisis |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=March 2011 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Occasional-Paper-81.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sally2011international, author = {Sally, Razeen}, title = {{International Trade and Emerging Markets Since the Crisis}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2011}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Occasional-Paper-81.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }