LOW-CARBON ENERGY TRANSITION IN AFRICA: INSIGHTS FROM WEST AFRICA

This policy briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the opportunities and constraints of transitioning to low-carbon energy in Africa, focusing on West Africa and Nigeria. It argues that while the continent has vast renewable potential, progress is hindered by fragmented governance, inadequate investment, and a lack of coordination between niche projects and national grids.

• Africa possesses significant renewable energy potential that could meet 50% of the continent's energy needs by 2030, but actualizing this requires regionally aligned policies and a shift away from hydrocarbon dependence.
• There is a critical risk of 'stranded' hydrocarbon assets for African economies; limiting global warming to 2°C may mean that 30% of oil, 50% of gas, and 80% of coal reserves become stranded.
• West Africa faces severe energy access challenges, with over 57% of the 300.7 million ECOWAS citizens lacking electricity. Despite this, the region has significant untapped resources, including 25,000 MW of hydropower potential, of which only 16% is currently used.
• Nigeria demonstrates both the potential for decentralized green energy and the risks of fragmentation. Examples include the Nigeria–Germany Energy Partnership Project for universities and the use of solar by 500 petrol stations, yet these projects often remain poorly coordinated with the national grid.
• The transition is supported by falling technology costs, such as battery-pack prices dropping from almost $1,000 per kWh in 2010 to less than $230 per kWh in 2016, and regulatory shifts like Nigeria's Mini Grid Regulation.
• Effective energy transition in Africa requires a move toward 'responsive governance' to prevent renewable projects from becoming isolated clusters and to better align national actions with subregional and continental bodies like the AU and African Development Bank.

APA

BELLO, O., & OJOYI, M. (2017). LOW-CARBON ENERGY TRANSITION IN AFRICA: INSIGHTS FROM WEST AFRICA. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Policy-Briefing-164.pdf

Chicago

BELLO, OLADIRAN, and MERCY OJOYI. LOW-CARBON ENERGY TRANSITION IN AFRICA: INSIGHTS FROM WEST AFRICA. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2017. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Policy-Briefing-164.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=BELLO |first1=OLADIRAN |last2=OJOYI |first2=MERCY |title=LOW-CARBON ENERGY TRANSITION IN AFRICA: INSIGHTS FROM WEST AFRICA |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2017 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Policy-Briefing-164.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bello2017lowcarbon, author = {BELLO, OLADIRAN and OJOYI, MERCY}, title = {{LOW-CARBON ENERGY TRANSITION IN AFRICA: INSIGHTS FROM WEST AFRICA}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2017}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Policy-Briefing-164.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }