The chill winds of Doha

This research paper argues that South Africa and other developing nations should accept a 'bad deal' in the Doha round of WTO negotiations to prevent the collapse of the multilateral trading system and avoid the risks of bilateral trade agreements dominated by wealthy nations.

• The failure to reach a Doha round agreement would likely lead to the breakdown of international economic negotiations and the dispute settlement mechanism, potentially resulting in a shift toward bilateral trade strategies where wealthy nations hold more power and developing countries are pressured into unfavorable deals.
• WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy proposes a 'triangle' of resolutions to unlock the round: the US must limit domestic agricultural subsidies to US$20 billion annually, the EU must cut agricultural tariffs by 54 percent to align with the G20 proposal, and developing countries must agree to a tariff reduction coefficient of 20 for industrial goods, capping maximum bound tariffs at 20 percent.
• In South Africa, industrial tariff reductions are opposed by COSATU and some business sectors, but the author argues that import substitution is flawed due to a small market and economic inefficiencies, suggesting that trade liberalization is necessary to lower costs and support exports.
• The success of the negotiations depends on the G6 group (US, EU, Brazil, India, Japan, and Australia) concluding a core agricultural package by the end of the month to ensure US negotiators can submit it to Congress before George Bush’s trade promotion authority expires next year.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2006). The chill winds of Doha. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-chill-winds-of-doha/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. The chill winds of Doha. 2006. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-chill-winds-of-doha/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=The chill winds of Doha |date=21 July 2006 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/the-chill-winds-of-doha/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2006chill, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{The chill winds of Doha}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2006}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/the-chill-winds-of-doha/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }