Africa's Big States: Toward a New Realism

This research paper argues that large African states, with the exception of South Africa, are characterized by chronic instability, poor economic performance, and administrative failure. The author contends that the international community's adherence to territorial integrity and generic democratic prescriptions is ineffective for these complex states and proposes a new realism that prioritizes state-building over democracy and accepts the possibility of partition.

• Large African states, excluding South Africa, generally exhibit higher levels of instability and lower economic performance than smaller states. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the DRC have average per capita incomes under $300 a year, which is significantly lower than the Sub-Saharan African average of approximately $1,000 and the $2,000+ average seen in countries with fewer than 2 million inhabitants.
• Big African states suffer from severe administrative and political dysfunction, failing to establish systems capable of managing their size and diversity. This is evidenced by frequent leadership turnovers—11 each in Sudan and Nigeria, 8 in the DRC, and 5 in Ethiopia since 1960—and a lack of territorial control and infrastructure, particularly in the DRC.
• Internal failures, rather than external interventions, are the primary drivers of instability in large African states. While some conflicts involved proxy wars, such as in Angola between the US/South Africa and the Soviet Union/Cuba, the fighting often continued as a domestic phenomenon after external actors withdrew.
• South Africa is the sole exception among large African states, possessing a functioning state apparatus, strong administrative systems, and infrastructure that allow for policy implementation and tax collection. Its stability is attributed in part to its rejection of extreme decentralization in favor of a strong unitary system.
• Various governance experiments in large states have failed to provide lasting solutions. Nigeria's increase to 36 states and its presidential vote requirements have not eliminated traditional divisions; Ethiopia's experiment with ethnic federalism and the right to secession remains precarious; and Sudan's shifts between repression and asymmetrical federalism have not ended conflict.
• The international community's current approach is based on outmoded principles: a commitment to territorial integrity, the belief that decentralization/federalism is the primary solution, and the promotion of democracy as a panacea. The author argues these principles ignore the reality of politicized ethnicity and religion.
• The author proposes a 'new realism' for engaging with large African states, which includes limiting the commitment to territorial integrity to defense against outside aggression, accepting partition if it occurs, prioritizing state-building over democracy, and developing more decisive peacekeeping models.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2008). Africa's Big States: Toward a New Realism. https://saiia.org.za/research/africas-big-states-toward-a-new-realism/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Africa's Big States: Toward a New Realism. 2008. https://saiia.org.za/research/africas-big-states-toward-a-new-realism/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Africa's Big States: Toward a New Realism |date=28 April 2008 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/africas-big-states-toward-a-new-realism/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2008africas, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Africa's Big States: Toward a New Realism}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2008}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/africas-big-states-toward-a-new-realism/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }