2013 Kenyan Election Outlook: What Will the Future Hold?

This briefing analyzes the political environment surrounding Kenya's 2013 elections, examining the impact of a new constitutional framework, the role of the International Criminal Court (ICC), and the persistence of ethnic tensions and socio-economic grievances.

• The 2010 constitution introduced structural changes to the electoral process, including the creation of 47 counties and new requirements for presidential candidates to win 50% plus one of the popular vote and at least 25% in more than half of the counties. These reforms aim to prevent candidates from winning based solely on a single ethnic or regional group and to increase representation for marginalized groups.
• Key political contenders, specifically Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto of the Jubilee Coalition, face charges from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity related to the 2007 post-election violence. If Kenyatta wins, he would be the second sitting president after Sudan's Omar Bashir to face ICC indictment, potentially leading to a domestic backlash or Kenya's withdrawal from the Statute of Rome.
• Despite constitutional reforms, deep-seated grievances—including poverty, corruption, high youth unemployment, and land access issues—persist. Localized conflicts in the Coast Province and Tana River delta, which caused nearly 200 deaths since August 2012, and calls for a boycott by the Mombasa Republican Council indicate ongoing volatility.
• The 2013 elections are characterized by two primary coalitions: the Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD), led by Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka, and the Jubilee Coalition. While the new system may encourage integration, ethnically-based politics remain endemic, and there are concerns that hate speech has migrated to social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter.
• To prevent a repeat of the 2007 violence, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) implemented a Biometric voter registration system to eliminate duplicate entries, successfully removing 20,000 names from the roll.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2013). 2013 Kenyan Election Outlook: What Will the Future Hold? https://saiia.org.za/research/2013-kenyan-election-outlook-what-will-the-future-hold/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. 2013 Kenyan Election Outlook: What Will the Future Hold? 2013. https://saiia.org.za/research/2013-kenyan-election-outlook-what-will-the-future-hold/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=2013 Kenyan Election Outlook: What Will the Future Hold? |date=3 March 2013 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/2013-kenyan-election-outlook-what-will-the-future-hold/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs20132013, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{2013 Kenyan Election Outlook: What Will the Future Hold?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2013}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/2013-kenyan-election-outlook-what-will-the-future-hold/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }