2013 Kenyan Election Outlook: What Will the Future Hold?

The 2013 Kenyan elections occur under a new 2010 constitution designed to reduce ethnic polarisation by requiring presidential candidates to secure broad geographic support across 47 counties. Despite these reforms and the introduction of biometric voter registration to prevent rigging, significant risks remain, including endemic ethnic politics, high youth unemployment, and land disputes in the Coast Province. A primary source of instability is the International Criminal Court (ICC) indictments against Jubilee Coalition candidates Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, which have strained relations with the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, and could lead to Kenya's withdrawal from the Statute of Rome.

• The 2010 constitution introduced structural changes to mitigate ethnic-based voting by requiring presidential candidates to obtain 50% plus one of the popular vote and at least 25% in more than half of the 47 counties.
• International Criminal Court (ICC) charges against Jubilee Coalition candidates Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto create significant political risk, potentially leading to Kenya's withdrawal from the Statute of Rome and damaged relations with the UK, France, and the US.
• While constitutional reforms are positive, underlying grievances such as poverty, corruption, and land access persist, with the Coast Province identified as the most volatile region due to separatist activity by the Mombasa Republican Council.
• To prevent the vote rigging seen in 2007, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) implemented biometric voter registration technology, which has already removed 20,000 duplicate names from the voters' roll.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2013). 2013 Kenyan Election Outlook: What Will the Future Hold? https://saiia.org.za/research/2013-kenyan-election-outlook-what-will-the-future-hold/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. 2013 Kenyan Election Outlook: What Will the Future Hold? 2013. https://saiia.org.za/research/2013-kenyan-election-outlook-what-will-the-future-hold/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=2013 Kenyan Election Outlook: What Will the Future Hold? |date=3 March 2013 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/2013-kenyan-election-outlook-what-will-the-future-hold/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs20132013, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{2013 Kenyan Election Outlook: What Will the Future Hold?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2013}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/2013-kenyan-election-outlook-what-will-the-future-hold/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }