Somalia: Can South Africa afford to play a role there?

This research paper examines the viability of a regional peacekeeping force in Somalia following a UN Security Council vote in December 2007. It analyzes the instability caused by the conflict between the Transitional Federal Government and the Union of Islamic Courts, the role of Ethiopian military intervention, and the challenges of assembling an African Union-led force. The author specifically evaluates South Africa's capacity and willingness to contribute troops, concluding that South Africa has opted out due to existing commitments and the high risk of failure in a country without a formal ceasefire.

• The UN Security Council voted on December 6 to establish a regional peacekeeping force for Somalia, delegating the responsibility for its creation to the African Union under the principle of "African solutions to African problems".
• The security situation in Somalia is characterized by extreme fragility, with the Transitional Federal Government relying on Ethiopian troops to dislodge the Union of Islamic Courts. The author argues that the departure of Ethiopian forces would create a vacuum that a regional peacekeeping force could not fill quickly enough, potentially returning the country to the control of warlords or an insurgency by Islamic Courts' forces.
• The proposed peacekeeping force, known as Igasom and framed by the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development in Nairobi, requires 8,000 troops. While countries such as Uganda and Sudan initially showed willingness, they later withdrew. Other potential contributors mentioned include Tunisia, Zambia, Algeria, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Rwanda.
• South Africa has declined to provide troops for the Somalia mission. This decision is based on existing military commitments in five other peace operations, specifically in the Great Lakes region (Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ivory Coast), as well as on the Ethiopia-Eritrea border and in Darfur. The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) officially announced it did not have available troops.
• The author contends that peacekeeping is currently futile in Somalia because there is no formal ceasefire or agreement between political factions. Sending troops now would likely result in failure similar to the UN operations between 1993 and 1995.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2008). Somalia: Can South Africa afford to play a role there? https://saiia.org.za/research/somalia-can-south-africa-afford-to-play-a-role-there/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Somalia: Can South Africa afford to play a role there? 2008. https://saiia.org.za/research/somalia-can-south-africa-afford-to-play-a-role-there/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Somalia: Can South Africa afford to play a role there? |date=30 April 2008 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/somalia-can-south-africa-afford-to-play-a-role-there/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2008somalia, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Somalia: Can South Africa afford to play a role there?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2008}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/somalia-can-south-africa-afford-to-play-a-role-there/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }