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Deadline or deadlock? AMISOM’s future in Somalia
This policy brief argues that the 2021 deadline for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to transfer primary security responsibilities to the Somali National Security Forces (SNSF) is unrealistic. The author contends that the transition is currently driven more by donor funding preferences than by actual security improvements on the ground. To ensure a successful transition, the brief recommends enhancing AMISOM's operational capabilities and resolving the political deadlock between the Federal Government of Somalia and its federal member states.
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Document type: Policy brief
Somalia: Understanding Al-Shabaab
This situation report from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the structure, ideology, and strategic evolution of Al-Shabaab in Somalia as of June 2009. It examines the group's emergence following the Ethiopian military intervention in 2006 and its current efforts to undermine the National Unity Government led by President Sheikh Sharif.
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Document type: Report
Somalia: Can South Africa afford to play a role there?
This research paper examines the viability of a regional peacekeeping force in Somalia following a UN Security Council vote in December 2007. It analyzes the instability caused by the conflict between the Transitional Federal Government and the Union of Islamic Courts, the role of Ethiopian military intervention, and the challenges of assembling an African Union-led force. The author specifically evaluates South Africa's capacity and willingness to contribute troops, concluding that South Africa has opted out due to existing commitments and the high risk of failure in a country without a formal ceasefire.
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Document type: Research paper
The Somali Conflict: Root Causes, Obstacles and Peace-Building Strategies
This research paper examines the root causes, obstacles, and potential peace-building strategies for the Somali conflict. The authors argue that the civil war, which began after the ousting of General Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991, is driven by competition for power and resources, state repression, and a colonial legacy, further exacerbated by politicized clan identities and the availability of weapons. The paper identifies Ethiopia's hostile foreign policy and the interests of local warlords as primary obstacles to peace and proposes a comprehensive strategy involving security, clan-based power-sharing, economic redevelopment, and Islam-informed peace education.
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Document type: Research paper
Enhanced Policing is Critical to Sustain Military Victories in Somalia
This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies argues that transitioning Somalia from conflict to post-conflict stability requires shifting security responsibilities from military forces to an enhanced, professional police force to protect liberated areas from al-Shabaab's guerrilla tactics and build public trust.
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Document type: Briefing
psc46may_13f-37530d088f53bd62.pdf
This May 2013 report from the Institute for Security Studies provides an analysis of the African Union's Peace and Security Council (PSC) activities, focusing on the political situation in Zimbabwe, the strategic review of the AMISOM mission in Somalia, and the institutionalization of the Pan-African Network of Sages (PanWise).
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Document type: Report
psc78_eng-c36a5529d3be6fec.pdf
This March 2016 issue of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) Report, published by the Institute for Security Studies, analyzes the effectiveness of the African Union's (AU) Peace and Security Council. It examines the limited impact of the PSC's open sessions on migration and natural resources, the socio-economic recovery and security challenges in Somalia, and the policy failures regarding the proposed military intervention in Burundi. Additionally, it features an interview with mediator Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah on the AU's capacity to resolve conflicts.
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Document type: Report