2015 Budget: Too little, too late for South Africa's public debt

This research paper analyzes the 2015 South African budget, arguing that the proposed fiscal consolidation and austerity measures may be insufficient to stabilize the country's rising public debt and maintain market confidence.

• The 2015 budget proposes a plan for fiscal consolidation through austerity measures, including a more progressive personal income and corporate tax structure, increased fuel levies, higher sin taxes on tobacco and alcohol, and the reduction of government waste and expenditure.
• South Africa's public debt-to-GDP ratio rose sharply from 26% in 2009 to 43.9% by 2014, driven by a significant fiscal policy response to the global financial crisis where government spending exceeded revenue.
• Rising interest payments on public debt have become the fastest growing component of government spending, increasing by nearly 70% since 2009 and crowding out investments in human capital and infrastructure.
• The author argues that Treasury's goal to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio at 43.7% by 2017/2018 is overly ambitious, as the required primary surplus to achieve this exceeds the budgeted balance, even assuming moderate interest rates and forecasted growth.
• Several risks threaten the budget's success, including potential labor strikes due to a gap between the budgeted 6.6% wage increase and the 15% demanded by organized labor, as well as continued fiscal drains from state-owned enterprises such as SAA, Eskom, and the Post Office.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2015). 2015 Budget: Too little, too late for South Africa's public debt. https://saiia.org.za/research/2015-budget-too-little-too-late-for-south-africas-public-debt/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. 2015 Budget: Too little, too late for South Africa's public debt. 2015. https://saiia.org.za/research/2015-budget-too-little-too-late-for-south-africas-public-debt/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=2015 Budget: Too little, too late for South Africa's public debt |date=18 March 2015 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/2015-budget-too-little-too-late-for-south-africas-public-debt/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs20152015, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{2015 Budget: Too little, too late for South Africa's public debt}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/2015-budget-too-little-too-late-for-south-africas-public-debt/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }