Post-Gaddafi Libya: Internal, Regional and International Security Implications

This briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) analyzes the internal, regional, and international security implications following the death of Muammar Gaddafi on 20 October 2011. It examines the challenges facing the National Transitional Council (NTC) in managing armed militias and oil revenues, the risk of arms proliferation across the Sahel and Maghreb, and the geopolitical opportunities for South Africa and the African Union (AU) to influence the transition and strengthen regional security mechanisms.

• The National Transitional Council (NTC) faces a significant short-to-medium term challenge in maintaining control over diverse armed groups and militias. Some Islamic leaders, including Abdel Hakim Belhadj—a former leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) with links to al Qaeda and the Taliban—have stated that militias will not disarm until their demands for political representation in the NTC are met.
• There is a severe risk of arms proliferation due to the loss of 20,000 shoulder-fired ground-to-air missile systems from stockpiles. This proliferation threatens regional security, as weapons may enter insurgent networks like al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) or reach rebel groups in Chad and Darfur.
• The transition is threatened by potential cooperation between 'hard-line' Gaddafi supporters and Islamic extremists, who may find common ground in opposing Western intervention to destabilize Tripoli. Additionally, grievances over the distribution of oil revenues—from Libya's estimated 41.5 billion barrels of reserves—could potentially spur secessionist movements in the east.
• The crisis has caused significant regional instability, including the flight of over one million Libyans to Tunisia, Egypt, and Italy. In Chad, the return of nearly 43,000 Chadians by June 2011, combined with a 57% reduction in remittances from Libya, has exacerbated poverty and food crises.
• The Libyan crisis highlighted the limitations of the African Union (AU), specifically the failure of its diplomatic roadmap and the fact that the African Standby Force is currently a "paper tiger." The author suggests South Africa and the AU must develop an operationally deployable force to complement mediation efforts.
• The fall of the Gaddafi regime presents a strategic opportunity for South Africa to increase its influence within the AU and establish closer ties with the NTC through technical advice on elections and constitution-making. The proposed South African Development Partnership Agency, launching in 2012, is identified as a potential tool for post-conflict reconstruction in Libya.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2011). Post-Gaddafi Libya: Internal, Regional and International Security Implications. https://saiia.org.za/research/post-gaddafi-libya-internal-regional-and-international-security-implications/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Post-Gaddafi Libya: Internal, Regional and International Security Implications. 2011. https://saiia.org.za/research/post-gaddafi-libya-internal-regional-and-international-security-implications/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Post-Gaddafi Libya: Internal, Regional and International Security Implications |date=18 November 2011 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/post-gaddafi-libya-internal-regional-and-international-security-implications/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2011postgaddafi, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Post-Gaddafi Libya: Internal, Regional and International Security Implications}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2011}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/post-gaddafi-libya-internal-regional-and-international-security-implications/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }