The Renewable Revolution

The document asserts that the world is in the midst of a 'renewable revolution' characterized by exponential cost declines and adoption rates for solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles. It identifies China as the current leader of this transition, which is sparking a global race to the top. The report claims that global fossil fuel demand peaked in 2019 and will enter terminal decline after 2025. By 2030, the authors predict that renewables will dominate sector sales and be significantly cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives, creating a 'renewable supercycle' for investors and a necessity for petrostates to reform. The report also highlights the potential for the Global South to leapfrog old technologies and the ability of renewables to drastically reduce air pollution deaths and environmental pressure compared to fossil fuels.

• Renewable energy technologies are experiencing exponential growth and rapid cost reductions, with costs for onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, and batteries falling by 60%–80% between 2012 and 2022.
• Global primary fossil fuel demand is estimated to have peaked in 2019 and is currently on a plateau that is expected to end around 2025, followed by a terminal decline.
• China is the dominant leader in the renewable revolution due to its manufacturing capacity, strategic government focus, and status as a major fossil fuel importer, which has pushed other regions like the US and EU to accelerate their own deployments.
• By 2030, S-curve modeling suggests that electric vehicles (EVs) will account for over 70% of global sales and 90% of sales in China, while solar additions are projected to exceed 1,000 GW.
• The transition creates significant financial risks for banks and investors with high exposure to fossil fuels, potentially leading to a 'Minsky moment' as trillions of dollars in fixed assets become stranded.
• Renewable energy solutions offer vastly lower environmental and health impacts than fossil fuels, including the potential to prevent 8 million deaths annually caused by fossil fuel air pollution.
• The Global South has a unique opportunity to leapfrog fossil fuel-based development by deploying cheap, local, and distributed renewable resources.

APA

Bond, K., & Butler-Sloss, S. (2023). The Renewable Revolution. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/dlm_uploads/2023/06/rmi_renewable_revolution.pdf

Chicago

Bond, Kingsmill, and Sam Butler-Sloss. The Renewable Revolution. RMI, 2023. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/dlm_uploads/2023/06/rmi_renewable_revolution.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bond |first1=Kingsmill |last2=Butler-Sloss |first2=Sam |title=The Renewable Revolution |publisher=RMI |date=June 2023 |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/dlm_uploads/2023/06/rmi_renewable_revolution.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bond2023renewable, author = {Bond, Kingsmill and Butler-Sloss, Sam}, title = {{The Renewable Revolution}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/dlm_uploads/2023/06/rmi_renewable_revolution.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }