POSITIVE DISRUPTION

The report presents five scenarios demonstrating that global warming can be limited to well below 2 C° if the world leverages exponential technological improvements and S-curve market diffusion. It highlights that experts often underestimate the speed of energy transitions by ignoring learning rates and systemic feedbacks. The proposed pathways involve reducing energy demand by approximately 60% through efficiency and electrification, shifting the electricity supply to over 90% renewables by 2040 in aggressive scenarios, and transforming agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) into a net carbon sink by the mid-2040s.

• The report presents five scenarios for energy, agriculture, and land use that can limit global average temperature increase to 1.5–2 C°, with the most aggressive scenario (Scenario 1) limiting it to 1.47 C° by the end of the century.
• Mainstream energy analysts frequently underestimate the speed of transitions because they rely on historical linear growth models and ignore the expanding returns of renewables, where increased adoption leads to lower costs and further adoption.
• Core clean energy technologies—including solar PV, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles—demonstrate potential for sustained exponential growth based on Wright's Law, where costs decline as cumulative production increases.
• In the most aggressive scenario, annual solar PV installations could increase from 73 GW in 2015 to 1,500 GW by 2059, with module prices potentially dropping below $0.25/W by 2030.
• A rapid energy transition is supported by cascading systemic effects, such as falling battery costs simultaneously accelerating electric vehicle deployment and increasing renewable energy penetration on the grid.
• Developing countries have a 'leapfrog' opportunity to build sustainable energy infrastructure directly, avoiding the lock-in of existing fossil-fuel capital assets; India is cited as an example where renewable capacity additions reached parity with thermal capacity in 2016–17.
• Transforming energy demand through efficiency and electrification in buildings, industry, and transportation could reduce total energy required by 56% by 2100 compared to business-as-usual.
• In the most aggressive scenario, solar and wind could provide over 90% of the world's electricity supply by 2040.
• The agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector could become a net-neutral contributor to CO2e emissions by the mid-2040s and a net sink thereafter, mitigating up to 15.8 Gt CO2e per year by 2100 through vectors like biomass pyrolysis and land conversion to forest.

APA

Abramczyk, M., Campbell, M., Chitkara, A., Diawara, M., Lerch, A., & Newcomb, J. (2017). POSITIVE DISRUPTION. RMI. https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/RMI_Positive_Disruption.pdf

Chicago

Abramczyk, Marshall, Martha Campbell, Aman Chitkara, Mia Diawara, Aileen Lerch, and James Newcomb. POSITIVE DISRUPTION. RMI, 2017. https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/RMI_Positive_Disruption.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Abramczyk |first1=Marshall |last2=Campbell |first2=Martha |last3=Chitkara |first3=Aman |last4=Diawara |first4=Mia |last5=Lerch |first5=Aileen |last6=Newcomb |first6=James |title=POSITIVE DISRUPTION |publisher=RMI |date=August 2017 |url=https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/RMI_Positive_Disruption.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{abramczyk2017positive, author = {Abramczyk, Marshall and Campbell, Martha and Chitkara, Aman and Diawara, Mia and Lerch, Aileen and Newcomb, James}, title = {{POSITIVE DISRUPTION}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2017}, month = aug, url = {https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/RMI_Positive_Disruption.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }