HEADWINDS FOR US NATURAL GAS POWER

The report finds that most of the 88+ GW of proposed US gas power plants are economically uncompetitive compared to Clean Energy Portfolios (CEPs), which combine wind, solar, storage, energy efficiency, and demand flexibility. At least 70 GW of proposed gas capacity could be avoided using CEPs, potentially saving $22 billion and reducing CO2 emissions by 873 million metric tons over 20 years. The analysis highlights six key headwinds—including declining renewable costs, rising gas prices, and public health impacts—that increase the risk of project cancellations or stranded assets. Specifically, in a central analysis case, 40% of proposed combined cycle (CC) plants would cost more to operate than a new CEP would cost to build within 10 years, a figure that could rise to 80-90% under certain economic scenarios. The report also notes that CEPs create more jobs and avoid significant health costs, particularly in low-income communities and communities of color.

• A significant portion of proposed gas power plant capacity in the US is economically uncompetitive compared to Clean Energy Portfolios (CEPs). At least 70 GW of the 88-plus GW of proposed gas plants could be avoided using CEPs, which would result in savings of $22 billion and a reduction of 873 million metric tons of CO2 over project lifetimes.
• New gas plant investments are facing high risks of becoming stranded assets. In the central analysis case, 40% of proposed combined cycle (CC) gas plants would cost more to operate than a new CEP would cost to build within 10 years. Under various economic risk scenarios, this stranded-cost risk could increase to 80%–90% of plants within a decade.
• The competitiveness of CEPs varies by the type of gas plant they replace. CEPs are more competitive when replacing combined cycle (CC) plants, with 90% of CC capacity potentially avoidable. They are less competitive when replacing combustion turbines (CTs), with 60% of CT capacity potentially avoidable, as CT replacements are more sensitive to regional renewable generation and demand patterns.
• Six primary economic and policy headwinds are undermining the viability of new gas projects: (1) declining renewable energy costs, (2) rising gas prices, (3) the need for firm gas supply, (4) higher job creation from CEPs, (5) public health costs of pollution, and (6) impacts on vulnerable communities.
• Internalizing health costs and prioritizing community risk significantly increases CEP competitiveness. Avoiding proposed gas plants in favor of CEPs could prevent $23 billion to $74 billion in health impacts over 20 years, avoiding 152 to 346 pollution-related deaths annually. Furthermore, 40 GW of proposed gas plants are located in low-income communities or communities of color, with 33 GW of that capacity being economically replaceable by CEPs.
• Investment in CEPs offers greater employment opportunities than gas plants. CEPs could create approximately 1,030,000 new job-years compared to 860,000 for proposed gas plants, representing a net increase of over 170,000 job-years over a 20-year horizon.
• Market trends show a decline in new gas capacity additions and an increase in project cancellations. In 2018, gas represented 64% of new capacity additions (22 GW), but by 2020, this share dropped to about 20%. Additionally, more than 50% of gas plants proposed to enter service in the two years prior to the report were terminated before construction.

APA

Shwisberg, L., Engel, A., Odom, C., & Dyson, M. (2021). HEADWINDS FOR US NATURAL GAS POWER. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2021/12/clean_energy_portfolios_2021.pdf

Chicago

Shwisberg, Lauren, Alex Engel, Caitlin Odom, and Mark Dyson. HEADWINDS FOR US NATURAL GAS POWER. RMI, 2021. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2021/12/clean_energy_portfolios_2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shwisberg |first1=Lauren |last2=Engel |first2=Alex |last3=Odom |first3=Caitlin |last4=Dyson |first4=Mark |title=HEADWINDS FOR US NATURAL GAS POWER |publisher=RMI |date=December 2021 |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2021/12/clean_energy_portfolios_2021.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shwisberg2021headwinds, author = {Shwisberg, Lauren and Engel, Alex and Odom, Caitlin and Dyson, Mark}, title = {{HEADWINDS FOR US NATURAL GAS POWER}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2021}, month = dec, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2021/12/clean_energy_portfolios_2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }