Proliferation, oil, and climate: solving for pattern

The author contends that the perceived intractability of nuclear proliferation, climate change, and oil dependence stems from a mistaken assumption that climate protection and oil displacement are costly. By applying 'integrative design' and 'micropower' (cogeneration and renewables), the author argues that energy efficiency and distributed generation are more profitable, faster to deploy, and more effective than nuclear power. Specifically, the paper asserts that phasing out nuclear power is a necessary condition for nonproliferation because civilian nuclear infrastructure provides the materials and knowledge required for weapons. The author proposes that the U.S. should reform the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by redefining the obligations under Article IV to provide developing nations with efficient, non-nuclear energy security rather than nuclear technology.

• Climate protection and energy efficiency are profitable rather than costly because saving fuel is cheaper than buying it, though adoption is hindered by 60–80 market failures and approximately half-trillion dollars in annual fossil fuel subsidies.
• Integrative design allows for large energy savings to cost less than small or no savings, contradicting the economic assumption of diminishing returns; this approach could potentially make global greenhouse-gas emission cuts profitable.
• U.S. oil dependence can be eliminated by the 2040s through business-led profit motives, with a roadmap suggesting that redoubling efficiency and displacing the remaining oil with saved natural gas and advanced biofuels would cost an average of $12 to $18 per barrel.
• Nuclear power is not commercially viable and is being eclipsed by 'micropower' (cogeneration and renewables), which is cheaper, faster to deploy, and less financially risky.
• Phasing out nuclear power is a necessary condition for nonproliferation because civilian nuclear fuel cycles provide the essential materials, equipment, and knowledge used to create military bombs.
• The author proposes reformulating Article IV of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to provide developing countries with aid for oil and coal displacement and energy security via renewables and efficiency, rather than access to nuclear technology.

APA

Lovins, A. B. (2010). Proliferation, oil, and climate: solving for pattern. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2010-02_ProliferationOilClimatePatterncj.pdf

Chicago

Lovins, Amory B. Proliferation, oil, and climate: solving for pattern. RMI, 2010. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2010-02_ProliferationOilClimatePatterncj.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lovins |first1=Amory B. |title=Proliferation, oil, and climate: solving for pattern |publisher=RMI |date=17 January 2010 |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2010-02_ProliferationOilClimatePatterncj.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lovins2010proliferation, author = {Lovins, Amory B.}, title = {{Proliferation, oil, and climate: solving for pattern}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2010}, month = jan, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2010-02_ProliferationOilClimatePatterncj.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }