Proliferation, oil, and climate: solving for pattern

This research paper argues that nuclear proliferation, climate change, and oil dependence are interconnected problems that can be solved simultaneously by shifting energy strategy away from nuclear power and fossil fuels toward energy efficiency and 'micropower' (distributed renewables and cogeneration). The author contends that nuclear power is economically unviable and inherently linked to proliferation risks, while integrative design and renewable technologies offer more profitable and faster paths to energy security and carbon reduction.

• The author argues that nuclear proliferation, climate change, and oil dependence share common causes and can be solved by a single strategy: shifting to energy efficiency and renewable energy. This approach is presented as profitable because 'saving fuel costs less than buying fuel,' contradicting the common assumption that climate protection is a costly burden.
• The document asserts that nuclear power is the primary driver of nuclear proliferation because the materials, skills, and equipment required for civilian nuclear energy create 'do-it-yourself bomb kits' that are difficult to regulate. The author concludes that phasing out nuclear power is a 'necessary and a nearly sufficient condition' for stopping the spread of nuclear weapons.
• Nuclear power is described as being in a state of global market collapse due to high costs and financial risks. The author notes that no new nuclear plant has been ordered through 'free and fair competition' and that the technology is significantly more expensive than wind power, even when wind is 'firmed' for reliability.
• The paper promotes 'micropower'—defined as cogeneration (combined-heat-and-power) and renewable sources excluding large hydroelectric dams—as the superior alternative to central power plants. Micropower is characterized by mass-produced modules and faster deployment, having provided over half of the world's new electrical services in 2008.
• The author highlights 'integrative design' as a method to achieve large energy savings at low or negative costs by optimizing whole buildings or factories. This approach challenges the economic assumption of diminishing returns, suggesting that larger savings can actually cost less than smaller ones.
• The document suggests that the U.S. can eliminate its oil dependence by the 2040s through a business-led transition. It cites a 2004 study, 'Winning the Oil Endgame,' which estimated that redoubling oil-using efficiency and displacing the rest with natural gas and advanced biofuels would cost an average of $12 to $18 per barrel.
• The author proposes reformulating Article IV of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Instead of providing developing nations with nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, the author suggests the U.S. and other nations should provide aid for 'oil [and now coal] displacement and energy security' via efficiency and renewables.

APA

Lovins, A. B. (2010). Proliferation, oil, and climate: solving for pattern. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2010-02_ProliferationOilClimatePatterncj.pdf

Chicago

Lovins, Amory B. Proliferation, oil, and climate: solving for pattern. RMI, 2010. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2010-02_ProliferationOilClimatePatterncj.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lovins |first1=Amory B. |title=Proliferation, oil, and climate: solving for pattern |publisher=RMI |date=17 January 2010 |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2010-02_ProliferationOilClimatePatterncj.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lovins2010proliferation, author = {Lovins, Amory B.}, title = {{Proliferation, oil, and climate: solving for pattern}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2010}, month = jan, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2010-02_ProliferationOilClimatePatterncj.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }