Minnesotans would save up to $91 billion from climate-smart transportation

This document outlines the methodology used by RMI to estimate the economic and health benefits of reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and decarbonizing surface transportation in Minnesota. The analysis compares 'business-as-usual' scenarios against targets for VMT reduction and net-zero emissions by 2050.

• RMI analyzed two Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) scenarios based on 2022 MnDOT data using a 2019 baseline. The 'business-as-usual' case projects Minnesota's VMT will reach 69.7 billion miles by 2050, while the target scenario aims for a 20% per capita reduction, resulting in 56.0 billion miles by 2050.
• To calculate cost savings from avoided crash fatalities and injuries, RMI assumed crashes would decrease in proportion to VMT reduction. The analysis used fatality data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) for 2000-2009 and injury rates from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), monetizing fatalities using 2021 U.S. DOT guidance.
• Health benefits from active transportation were estimated by assuming that for every mile of reduced VMT, 10% shifts to walking and 5% shifts to biking. Averted fatalities were calculated using a 2020 Harvard study, though these were not included in direct monetized cost savings due to uncertainty.
• Air quality savings were calculated using the EPA’s COBRA tool to estimate avoided all-cause mortality from NOx, SO2, and PM2.5. The analysis assumed an ambitious electric vehicle (EV) adoption rate based on the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) 'Nationally Determined Contribution' (NDC) scenario.
• The social cost of carbon (SCC) analysis compared a reference scenario against a '100x50' scenario to achieve net zero surface transportation emissions. The SCC was valued at $190 per metric ton of CO2, a value legally adopted by Minnesota in February 2023 via Senate File 4.

APA

RMI (n.d.). Minnesotans would save up to $91 billion from climate-smart transportation. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2023/04/minnesota-dot-methodology.pdf

Chicago

RMI. Minnesotans would save up to $91 billion from climate-smart transportation. n.d. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2023/04/minnesota-dot-methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Minnesotans would save up to $91 billion from climate-smart transportation |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2023/04/minnesota-dot-methodology.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmindminnesotans, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Minnesotans would save up to \$91 billion from climate-smart transportation}}, institution = {RMI}, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2023/04/minnesota-dot-methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }