Peaking: A Brief History of Select Energy Transitions

The briefing identifies a recurring pattern in energy transitions where demand for an incumbent energy source peaks, plateaus, and then declines rapidly once price parity with a new source is reached. It provides historical examples from the US and UK, such as the transition from horses to cars and gas to electric lighting, and notes that OECD demand for coal electricity peaked in 2003 and has fallen by 43% since 2008.

• Energy transitions generally follow a specific sequence: demand for the existing energy source peaks, enters a plateau phase where infrastructure allows incumbents to resist change, and then declines rapidly once price parity is achieved.
• Historical examples illustrate the speed of these declines: US demand for horses peaked in 1905 and dropped 90% within 20 years; UK demand for gas lighting peaked in 1907 and fell 80% between 1920 and 1940.
• In the contemporary transition to renewable electricity, OECD demand for coal peaked in 2003, plateaued for approximately five years, and has decreased by 43% since beginning its decline in 2008.

APA

RMI (2022). Peaking: A Brief History of Select Energy Transitions. https://rmi.org/resources/how-past-energy-transitions-foretell-a-quicker-shift-away-from-fossil-fuels-today/

Chicago

RMI. Peaking: A Brief History of Select Energy Transitions. 2022. https://rmi.org/resources/how-past-energy-transitions-foretell-a-quicker-shift-away-from-fossil-fuels-today/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Peaking: A Brief History of Select Energy Transitions |date=9 August 2022 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/how-past-energy-transitions-foretell-a-quicker-shift-away-from-fossil-fuels-today/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2022peaking, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Peaking: A Brief History of Select Energy Transitions}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2022}, month = aug, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/how-past-energy-transitions-foretell-a-quicker-shift-away-from-fossil-fuels-today/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }