Peaking: A Brief History of Select Energy Transitions

This briefing by RMI describes a recurring historical pattern of 'peak, plateau, and decline' in energy transitions, where incumbent energy sources peak early and then fall rapidly once price parity is reached by new alternatives.

• Energy transitions typically follow a pattern of peak, plateau, and decline, where demand for incumbent sources falls faster than it rose once price parity is achieved, despite temporary resistance enabled by existing infrastructure.
• Historical examples of this pattern include the transition from horses to cars in the United States, where demand peaked in 1905 and dropped 90% within twenty years, and the shift from gas lighting to electric lighting in the UK, which peaked in 1907 and fell 80% between 1920 and 1940.
• Other historical UK transitions followed this trend: steam power peaked around 1910, steam ships peaked in 1914 (plateauing until 1929), and coal heating declined rapidly after 1960 following the discovery of cheaper gas in the North Sea.
• In the current transition to renewable electricity, OECD demand for coal electricity peaked in 2003, plateaued for approximately five years, and began declining in 2008, resulting in a 43% decrease since that time.

APA

RMI (2022). Peaking: A Brief History of Select Energy Transitions. https://rmi.org/resources/how-past-energy-transitions-foretell-a-quicker-shift-away-from-fossil-fuels-today/

Chicago

RMI. Peaking: A Brief History of Select Energy Transitions. 2022. https://rmi.org/resources/how-past-energy-transitions-foretell-a-quicker-shift-away-from-fossil-fuels-today/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Peaking: A Brief History of Select Energy Transitions |date=9 August 2022 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/how-past-energy-transitions-foretell-a-quicker-shift-away-from-fossil-fuels-today/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2022peaking, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Peaking: A Brief History of Select Energy Transitions}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2022}, month = aug, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/how-past-energy-transitions-foretell-a-quicker-shift-away-from-fossil-fuels-today/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }