SCÉNARIOS CLIMATIQUES : 5 pièges à éviter pour contenir le réchauffement à 1,5°C

The report critiques common climate scenarios, such as the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), for underestimating emissions and overestimating carbon capture to justify continued fossil fuel use. It argues that these scenarios often lead to warming above 2°C despite claims of alignment with the Paris Agreement. The author calls for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuel financing by 2040 in Europe and 2050 globally.

• Many climate scenarios are not aligned with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement, often guiding the world toward warming above 2°C and acting as 'greenwashing' tools for companies and financial actors.
• A significant gap exists in emission accounting; for example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) ignores approximately 30% of global emissions, including deforestation (10%), methane (15%), and nitrous oxide (6%).
• Climate scenarios frequently treat economic growth as an exogenous variable, ignoring the intrinsic link between energy consumption and growth, as well as planetary boundaries regarding raw materials.
• Scenarios rely heavily on immature and costly carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to justify continued fossil fuel use. In the IEA's SDS scenario, CCS would contribute to 9% of the required effort and capture 28% of total emissions by 2050.
• The role of renewable energy is chronically underestimated due to a bias in using primary energy representations and a failure to account for the rapid decline in renewable costs.
• Current financial projections for fossil fuels are incompatible with 1.5°C; the IEA's SDS allows over $15 trillion in fossil fuel investments from 2019 to 2040, while the NGFS central 2°C scenario projects $25 trillion from 2020 to 2050.
• To respect the Paris Agreement, financial actors should end services for new fossil fuel projects and exit fossil fuel exposure by 2040 in Europe and 2050 elsewhere for oil and gas, and 10 years earlier for coal.

APA

Schreiber, P., Pinson, L., Ileri, E. C., & Marchais, N. (2020). SCÉNARIOS CLIMATIQUES : 5 pièges à éviter pour contenir le réchauffement à 1,5°C. Reclaim Finance. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Piege_Scenario_Climat.pdf

Chicago

Schreiber, Paul, Lucie Pinson, Eren Can Ileri, and Nina Marchais. SCÉNARIOS CLIMATIQUES : 5 pièges à éviter pour contenir le réchauffement à 1,5°C. Reclaim Finance, 2020. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Piege_Scenario_Climat.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Schreiber |first1=Paul |last2=Pinson |first2=Lucie |last3=Ileri |first3=Eren Can |last4=Marchais |first4=Nina |title=SCÉNARIOS CLIMATIQUES : 5 pièges à éviter pour contenir le réchauffement à 1,5°C |publisher=Reclaim Finance |date=October 2020 |url=https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Piege_Scenario_Climat.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{schreiber2020scnarios, author = {Schreiber, Paul and Pinson, Lucie and Ileri, Eren Can and Marchais, Nina}, title = {{SCÉNARIOS CLIMATIQUES : 5 pièges à éviter pour contenir le réchauffement à 1,5°C}}, institution = {Reclaim Finance}, year = {2020}, month = oct, url = {https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Piege_Scenario_Climat.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }