Choosing your climate scenario

The guide outlines a two-step process for choosing climate scenarios that accurately reflect the requirements for climate mitigation. First, it advises avoiding scenarios from entities with conflicts of interest, such as oil and gas companies, in favor of independent bodies like the IEA or IPCC. Second, it mandates that a robust scenario must have at least a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or low temperature overshoot to avoid irreversible tipping points. Finally, the guide warns against scenarios that rely heavily on negative emissions technologies, such as BECCS and CCS, suggesting specific IPCC feasibility thresholds (e.g., 3 Gt CO2/year for BECCS by 2050) to filter out unrealistic pathways that may delay the phase-out of heavy emitting industries.

• To ensure objectivity, users should avoid climate scenarios produced by entities with conflicts of interest, such as oil and gas companies, and instead use scenarios from independent experts like the International Energy Agency (IEA) or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
• A robust climate scenario must aim for a 1.5°C outcome with at least a 50% probability of success and must avoid significant temperature overshoot to prevent the world from crossing irreversible tipping points.
• Scenarios should be screened to limit reliance on negative emissions, as excessive dependence on these technologies can be used to justify the continued operation of heavy emitting industries despite deployment difficulties.
• Specific feasibility thresholds for negative emissions should be used to filter scenarios: biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) should not exceed 3 Gt CO2/year by 2050, fossil CCS should not exceed 3.8 Gt CO2/year by 2050, and forest carbon dioxide removal (CDR) should not exceed 3.6 Gt CO2/year by 2050.

APA

Reclaim Finance (2024). Choosing your climate scenario. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/en/choosing-your-climate-scenario/

Chicago

Reclaim Finance. Choosing your climate scenario. 2024. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/en/choosing-your-climate-scenario/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Reclaim Finance |title=Choosing your climate scenario |date=19 November 2024 |url=https://reclaimfinance.org/site/en/choosing-your-climate-scenario/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{reclaimfinance2024choosing, author = {{Reclaim Finance}}, title = {{Choosing your climate scenario}}, institution = {Reclaim Finance}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://reclaimfinance.org/site/en/choosing-your-climate-scenario/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }