Choisir son scénario climatique

The document outlines a two-step process for choosing climate scenarios that effectively guide greenhouse gas emission reductions. It advises avoiding scenarios produced by entities with conflicts of interest, such as oil and gas companies, and instead prioritizing independent sources like the IEA and IPCC. A robust scenario must have at least a 50% probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C with low or zero 'overshoot' and must rely on limited negative emissions to avoid risking irreversible climate tipping points.

• Climate scenarios should be sourced from independent organizations with recognized expertise, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), rather than entities with conflicts of interest like oil and gas companies (e.g., Shell or TotalEnergies) who may use scenarios to justify continued fossil fuel production.
• A robust climate scenario must have at least a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C and should feature low or zero 'overshoot' to prevent the world from crossing irreversible 'tipping points'. Examples of such scenarios include the IEA's 'Net Zero Emissions' (NZE) scenario, several NGFS 'Net Zero' scenarios, and 97 IPCC 'C1' scenarios.
• Scenarios should be excluded if they rely on unrealistic volumes of negative emissions, as high reliance on these technologies can slow emission reductions and preserve high-emitting industries. Specifically, scenarios should be rejected if they exceed IPCC feasibility thresholds by 2050: 3 Gt CO2/year for Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), 3.8 Gt CO2/year for fossil Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), or 3.6 Gt CO2/year for forest carbon removal.

APA

Reclaim Finance (2024). Choisir son scénario climatique. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/choisir-son-scenario-climatique/

Chicago

Reclaim Finance. Choisir son scénario climatique. 2024. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/choisir-son-scenario-climatique/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Reclaim Finance |title=Choisir son scénario climatique |date=19 November 2024 |url=https://reclaimfinance.org/site/choisir-son-scenario-climatique/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{reclaimfinance2024choisir, author = {{Reclaim Finance}}, title = {{Choisir son scénario climatique}}, institution = {Reclaim Finance}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://reclaimfinance.org/site/choisir-son-scenario-climatique/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }