Infiltration as insurance

The author examines the 'credible commitment problem' in political transitions, where outgoing regimes or armed groups require guarantees that peace accords and amnesties will be honored. Using examples from Eastern Central Europe and Colombia, the text posits that the possession of incriminating information about government elites—often gained through infiltration—acts as a strategic insurance policy that compels governments to adhere to agreed-upon terms.

• Transitions from power often face a 'credible commitment problem' where the group stepping down needs a guarantee that the terms of a peace accord, such as amnesties and benefits, will be honored once they are powerless.
• In Eastern Central Europe, the transition to democracy was facilitated by the communist regime's exclusive knowledge of secret police collaborators within the democratic elite, which served as insurance against purges and transitional justice measures.
• For 'skeleton in the closet' insurance to effectively compel a government to deliver amnesty to demobilizing fighters, the government must believe its elites have incriminating links but remain uncertain of the extent, and the armed group must be able to reveal that information.
• In Colombia, the rapid demobilization of the United Self-defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) is partly explained by the infiltration of government officials, armed forces, and local political elites by paramilitary groups, which has been used to force the government to maintain lenient treatment.

APA

Nalepa, M. (2007). Infiltration as insurance. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/df869bd0-1a3e-45f3-9692-5f08ad581c71/Nalepa 2007 Infiltration as Insurance PRIO Policy Brief 7-07.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Nalepa, Monika. Infiltration as insurance. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2007. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/df869bd0-1a3e-45f3-9692-5f08ad581c71/Nalepa 2007 Infiltration as Insurance PRIO Policy Brief 7-07.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Nalepa |first1=Monika |title=Infiltration as insurance |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2007 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/df869bd0-1a3e-45f3-9692-5f08ad581c71/Nalepa 2007 Infiltration as Insurance PRIO Policy Brief 7-07.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{nalepa2007infiltration, author = {Nalepa, Monika}, title = {{Infiltration as insurance}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2007}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/df869bd0-1a3e-45f3-9692-5f08ad581c71/Nalepa 2007 Infiltration as Insurance PRIO Policy Brief 7-07.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }