Naga Militancy and Violent Politics in the Shadow of Ceasefire

The research analyzes Naga militancy in Northeast India, specifically examining how ceasefires between the Indian government and groups like the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN) have influenced the conflict. The author argues that ceasefires can disrupt internal group cohesion, create operational opportunities for illegal activities, and fuel inter-group rivalry. Data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal indicates that while ceasefires reduced encounters between security forces and militants, civilian and 'terrorist' fatalities increased between 1992 and 2010. The study concludes that the current ceasefire regime empowers signatory groups and legitimizes armed actors, creating a framework for 'violent politics' rather than a path to a political settlement.

• Ceasefires in Northeast India have successfully reduced direct clashes between security forces and militants, but have not reduced overall violence against civilians. Data from 1992 to 2010 shows that annual average 'civilian' and 'terrorist' victims increased from 692 to 764 per year after the initial 1997 ceasefire, while total insurgency-related fatalities decreased only slightly from 860 to 840 per year.
• Ceasefire agreements often trigger fragmentation within armed movements, leading to the creation of 'pro-talks' and 'anti-talks' factions. Examples include the split of the United Peoples Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) leading to the formation of the Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF) in 2004, and the splintering of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) into an 'anti-talks faction' (NDFB-ATF) following a 2005 ceasefire.
• Poor monitoring and a lack of sanctions for breaching ceasefire ground rules have allowed militant groups to use designated camps as bases for illegal economic activities. These include the collection of illegal 'taxes' from citizens and government departments, as well as the smuggling of drugs and weapons, specifically arms from Myanmar into Northeast India controlled by NSCN (IM).
• The demand for a 'Greater Nagaland' (Nagalim) encompassing contiguous Naga-inhabited areas has created a deadlock in peace negotiations. This demand is strongly opposed by the states of Assam, Manipur, and Arunachal Pradesh, as well as by other armed groups such as the Dima Halam Daogah (DHD), which claims overlapping territory as 'Dimaraji'.
• The Indian government's strategy of offering ceasefires to fragmented groups while excluding non-violent civil society actors has effectively legitimized militants as the primary political representatives of their constituencies. This approach creates a 'durable disorder' where both the state and militant leaders may find the benefits of perpetual negotiations more attractive than a final treaty.

APA

Kolås, Å. (n.d.). Naga Militancy and Violent Politics in the Shadow of Ceasefire. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e738af0-43cc-4423-902b-fea322c013b3/Naga Militancy and Violent Politics in the Shadow of Ceasefire.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Kolås, Åshild. Naga Militancy and Violent Politics in the Shadow of Ceasefire. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e738af0-43cc-4423-902b-fea322c013b3/Naga Militancy and Violent Politics in the Shadow of Ceasefire.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kolås |first1=Åshild |title=Naga Militancy and Violent Politics in the Shadow of Ceasefire |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e738af0-43cc-4423-902b-fea322c013b3/Naga Militancy and Violent Politics in the Shadow of Ceasefire.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kolsndnaga, author = {Kolås, Åshild}, title = {{Naga Militancy and Violent Politics in the Shadow of Ceasefire}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e738af0-43cc-4423-902b-fea322c013b3/Naga Militancy and Violent Politics in the Shadow of Ceasefire.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }