Measuring migration aspirations and related concepts

The document provides a systematic analysis of how to measure people's thoughts and feelings about migrating. It introduces a conceptual model that deconstructs survey questions into five components: nature of the mindset, temporality of the mindset, nature of the action, temporality of the action, and conditionality. Through a review of over 50 surveys and field testing in Cabo Verde, the author argues that binary questions are generally more reliable than open-ended or scale-based ones and emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between preferences, expectations, and considerations of migration.

• The author proposes a conceptual framework where survey questions on migration aspirations are deconstructed into five abstract components: the nature of the mindset, the timeframe of the mindset, the nature of the action, the timeframe of the action, and elements of conditionality.
• The document identifies eight distinct variants of the 'mindset' in migration surveys: consideration, preference, willingness, necessity, intention, planning, expectation, and likelihood.
• The author argues that 'migration intentions' is a problematic concept because it blends desirability and feasibility, is difficult to translate across languages, and often implies a degree of control that is illusory for the respondent.
• Field-based testing in São Vicente, Cabo Verde, confirmed that binary questions are generally superior to open-ended questions because they are easier for respondents to relate to and produce fewer requests for clarification.
• Retrospective questions about the 'consideration' of migration are highlighted as particularly valuable because they are factual rather than evaluative, resulting in fewer ambiguous responses and greater robustness against short-term sentiment fluctuations.
• The author warns against 'acquiescence response bias' in questions that only specify one option (e.g., 'Would you like to live abroad?'), recommending balanced formulations that make both 'leaving' and 'staying' explicit.
• The research emphasizes that 'don't know' responses in questions about expectations and preferences often have substantive value and should be recorded as a distinct category rather than treated as missing data.
• The document notes that context effects, such as the sequencing of questions or the use of loaded terms like 'opportunity', can significantly sway responses, meaning the overall proportion of respondents expressing a desire to migrate should not be viewed as a 'hard fact'.

APA

Carling, J. (2019). Measuring migration aspirations and related concepts. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c57a76ee-a48e-4c8d-a244-453149c35617/MIGNEX-Carling-Measuring-migration-aspirations-2019-v1.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Carling, Jørgen. Measuring migration aspirations and related concepts. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2019. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c57a76ee-a48e-4c8d-a244-453149c35617/MIGNEX-Carling-Measuring-migration-aspirations-2019-v1.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Carling |first1=Jørgen |title=Measuring migration aspirations and related concepts |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=August 2019 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c57a76ee-a48e-4c8d-a244-453149c35617/MIGNEX-Carling-Measuring-migration-aspirations-2019-v1.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carling2019measuring, author = {Carling, Jørgen}, title = {{Measuring migration aspirations and related concepts}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2019}, month = aug, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c57a76ee-a48e-4c8d-a244-453149c35617/MIGNEX-Carling-Measuring-migration-aspirations-2019-v1.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }