How Historians May Explain the ‘East Asian Peace’

The document analyzes the 'East Asian Peace', a significant reduction in battle deaths in East Asia between 1980 and 2005 compared to the 1946–1979 period. The author argues that this peace was not the result of a single event but a series of staggered political transitions across the region. Key drivers identified include a shift in leadership priorities toward export-driven economic growth and a strategic alignment with the United States. The paper contrasts this with the 'European Peace', noting that the East Asian case does not fit the liberal peace model due to a lack of widespread democratization and political integration.

• East Asia experienced a sharp decline in warfare after 1979; while there were an average of 10 armed conflicts per year from 1946–79, this dropped to 8 in 1980–2005. More significantly, 'wars' (conflicts with over 1,000 battle deaths annually) averaged 4 per year in 1946–79 but only 0.5 per year from 1980–2005.
• The total number of battle deaths in East Asia plummeted from an estimated 4.2 million between 1950–79 to just over 100,000 between 1980 and 2005.
• The 'East Asian Peace' does not align with 'liberal peace theory' because the region lacks general political integration and a consistent transition to democratic systems, consisting instead of a mix of authoritarian, semi-democratic, and electoral democracies.
• The transition to peace occurred in staggered stages across different nations: Japan in 1946, Korea in 1953/1991/2000, Insular Southeast Asia in 1967, China in 1979, Indochina in 1989–91, and Indonesia internally in 1999/2005.
• A primary driver of the regional peace was the shift by national leaders to prioritize export-driven economic growth over nationalist or ideological territorial goals, leading them to view disputes as a 'nuisance'.
• Another central factor was the strategic alignment of regional governments with the United States through formal alliances, de facto alliances, or rapprochement for diplomatic recognition.

APA

Tønnesson, S. (n.d.). How Historians May Explain the ‘East Asian Peace’. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4c95ce8a-6925-49ac-9ba1-a2661ed2d512/How Historians May Explain the East Asian Peace.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Tønnesson, Stein. How Historians May Explain the ‘East Asian Peace’. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4c95ce8a-6925-49ac-9ba1-a2661ed2d512/How Historians May Explain the East Asian Peace.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tønnesson |first1=Stein |title=How Historians May Explain the ‘East Asian Peace’ |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4c95ce8a-6925-49ac-9ba1-a2661ed2d512/How Historians May Explain the East Asian Peace.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tnnessonndhow, author = {Tønnesson, Stein}, title = {{How Historians May Explain the ‘East Asian Peace’}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4c95ce8a-6925-49ac-9ba1-a2661ed2d512/How Historians May Explain the East Asian Peace.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }