Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid

The authors argue that famine mortality is a result of a political support maximization calculus where governments weigh the costs of action against the costs of inaction. While democracies generally have lower famine mortality than autocracies, the study finds that both regime types can experience famine deaths. The research demonstrates that international food aid is most effective at reducing mortality when a large share of the population is affected, and that democratic governments respond more elastically to this combination than autocratic ones, which are more likely to divert aid to a small elite.

• Governmental inaction during a famine can be a rational outcome of a political support maximization calculus, occurring when the political costs of taking action exceed the costs of remaining inactive.
• Contrary to Amartya Sen's claim that functioning multiparty democracies prevent substantial famine mortality, the authors argue that famine mortality is possible in democracies, although it is likely to be lower than in autocracies.
• Democratic governments are more likely to implement policies that benefit all affected people, whereas autocratic governments tend to use targeted transfers to protect a small elite, leaving the broader population vulnerable.
• International food aid reduces the political trade-off for governments by allowing them to gain support from affected populations without incurring immediate economic costs for unaffected citizens.
• Autocratic regimes are more prone to misusing international food aid, often diverting it to the military or government officials or selling it on black markets for the benefit of the elite.
• Empirical analysis of 130 developing countries from 1972 to 2000 shows that the life-saving effect of international food aid is stronger when a larger share of the total population is affected by the famine.
• Democratic governments respond more elastically to the simultaneous availability of international food aid and a high proportion of affected citizens compared to autocratic governments.
• The study identifies that civil wars tend to increase famine mortality, while higher per capita income and higher population density significantly reduce the number of famine deaths.

APA

Plümper, T., & Neumayer, E. (2008). Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e524d78-350f-47f3-a29e-77093f23ba52/Famine Mortality Rational Political Inactivity and International Food Aid.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Plümper, Thomas, and Eric Neumayer. Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2008. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e524d78-350f-47f3-a29e-77093f23ba52/Famine Mortality Rational Political Inactivity and International Food Aid.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Plümper |first1=Thomas |last2=Neumayer |first2=Eric |title=Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=May 2008 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e524d78-350f-47f3-a29e-77093f23ba52/Famine Mortality Rational Political Inactivity and International Food Aid.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{plmper2008famine, author = {Plümper, Thomas and Neumayer, Eric}, title = {{Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2008}, month = may, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e524d78-350f-47f3-a29e-77093f23ba52/Famine Mortality Rational Political Inactivity and International Food Aid.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }