Measuring SDG 16.1.2: The UCDP Data

The document details the UCDP's approach to tracking armed conflict and fatalities, arguing that its rigorous, permanent infrastructure provides a 'gold standard' for measuring SDG 16.1.2. It outlines the program's categorization of violence, its data triangulation methods, and the challenges of disaggregating data by age and sex. Using UCDP data, the authors analyze global conflict trends from 1989 to 2016, noting a general long-term decline in warfare deaths despite recent spikes and high geographic concentration in countries like Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

• The UCDP provides annual global data on armed conflict using a methodology that is compatible with International Humanitarian Law (IHL), requiring a minimum intensity of 25 annual fatalities and a minimum level of organization for armed groups.
• The UCDP categorizes violence into four mutually exclusive types: interstate armed conflict, intrastate armed conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence.
• The program focuses exclusively on direct deaths resulting from the use of arms, excluding fatalities caused by the deprivation of health care or access to goods and services where intentionality is difficult to infer.
• Collecting disaggregated data on the sex and age of victims is highly challenging; a pilot study in Afghanistan and India found that such information was available for only 11–12% of fatalities, with a reporting bias toward civilian victimization.
• Since the end of the Cold War, the UCDP identified 1,049 conflicts across 117 locations, with a general long-term decline in warfare deaths since the 1950s, despite a rise in the number of conflicts and battle deaths since 2013.
• Conflict fatalities are currently highly concentrated geographically, with Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq accounting for approximately 80% of all fatalities in 2016.
• Recent trends show declines in conflict-related deaths in the Philippines (Mindanao) and a dramatic decline in battle deaths in Colombia following a 2016 peace agreement with the FARC.

APA

Nygård, H. M., & Eck, K. (2017). Measuring SDG 16.1.2: The UCDP Data. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/15c6e178-8e39-420b-9a3d-5682056df1fc/Eck Nygård - Measuring SDG 1612 PRIO Paper 2017.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv, and Kristine Eck. Measuring SDG 16.1.2: The UCDP Data. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2017. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/15c6e178-8e39-420b-9a3d-5682056df1fc/Eck Nygård - Measuring SDG 1612 PRIO Paper 2017.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{nygrd2017measuring, author = {Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv and Eck, Kristine}, title = {{Measuring SDG 16.1.2: The UCDP Data}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2017}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/15c6e178-8e39-420b-9a3d-5682056df1fc/Eck Nygård - Measuring SDG 1612 PRIO Paper 2017.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }