Weaponomics

The research introduces the first quantitative effort to document the small arms market using a dataset of AK-47 prices across 117 countries from 1986 to 2005. By applying a simultaneous equations model, the author finds that regulatory effectiveness and supply costs—specifically neighbours' military expenditure and border porousness—are the primary drivers of weapon prices. The study concludes that the collapse of the Soviet Union did not cause a supply shock as significant as commonly believed, and that regional trade dynamics, particularly in Africa, play a critical role in price determination.

• Regulatory effectiveness is a significant determinant of weapon prices, with better enforceability of laws and regulations increasing the cost of acquiring weapons.
• The average military expenditure of neighbouring countries is a robust predictor of lower weapon prices, likely due to the leakage of official stocks through corruption or seizure and strategic spillovers to rival forces.
• African countries experience a significant 'Africa-discount' where assault rifles are on average over US$200 cheaper than elsewhere, attributed to highly porous borders that create a nearly deregulated regional market.
• Contrary to common belief, the collapse of the Soviet Union did not act as a major supply shock that significantly lowered global weapon prices when other factors are controlled.
• The stock of weapons remaining from previous conflicts, termed 'civil war legacy', has a negative significant effect on prices, meaning more plentiful weapons lead to lower costs.
• Transport costs from the initial source of weapons affect pricing, as evidenced by a positive correlation between the distance from Moscow and the price of Kalashnikovs.

APA

Killicoat, P. (2006). Weaponomics. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6275f661-5fcd-4b6c-8878-ed5b6df3c29f/2006-13text.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Killicoat, Phillip. Weaponomics. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2006. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6275f661-5fcd-4b6c-8878-ed5b6df3c29f/2006-13text.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Killicoat |first1=Phillip |title=Weaponomics |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=September 2006 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6275f661-5fcd-4b6c-8878-ed5b6df3c29f/2006-13text.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{killicoat2006weaponomics, author = {Killicoat, Phillip}, title = {{Weaponomics}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2006}, month = sep, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6275f661-5fcd-4b6c-8878-ed5b6df3c29f/2006-13text.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }